AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · updated 2026-10-22
AC Milan welcome Ferencvárosi to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
AC Milan have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. Ferencvárosi have played 10 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: AC Milan 35%, the draw 28%, Ferencvárosi 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AC Milan 1.24, Ferencvárosi 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.68 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.2).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 59.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Ferencvárosi: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created (goals minus xG: +8.9).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 46.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi: season averages side by side
| AC Milan | Per match this season | Ferencvárosi |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 10 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.68 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.21 |
| 1.11 | xG conceded | – |
| 12.3 | Shots | 10.8 |
| 4.7 | On target | 3.9 |
| 59.7 | Possession % | 46.9 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
AC Milan
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
- Pervis Estupiñán LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Diego Moreira
Diego Moreira, 22 · AC Milan · LMF · Direct wide midfielder · Moneyball Score 60
Diego Moreira, 22, plays as a wide midfielder for AC Milan in Serie A. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and accurate crosses. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 60
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 56
- LWB · Wing-back Competent, 47
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 2.94 / 90 | 96% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.76 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.22 / 90 | 81% |
| Duels won | 6.47 / 90 | 81% |
| Interceptions | 0.88 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Crosser, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Diego Moreira is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Diego Moreira's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.24 for AC Milan and 1.27 for Ferencvárosi - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: AC Milan 1-1 Ferencvárosi
AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.51 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (46%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi: questions and answers
When is AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi?
AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, AC Milan's home ground.
Who will win AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi?
It is close: AC Milan 35%, draw 28%, Ferencvárosi 37%. Our prediction is AC Milan 1-1 Ferencvárosi.
Who is the player to watch in AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi?
Diego Moreira of AC Milan: a direct wide midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.