Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller · updated 2026-10-22
Lillestrøm welcome Viktoria Plzeň to Åråsen Stadion in Kjeller in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Lillestrøm have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Viktoria Plzeň have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lillestrøm are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 25% and Viktoria Plzeň at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lillestrøm 1.65, Viktoria Plzeň 1.31.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lillestrøm: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.78 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Viktoria Plzeň: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.41 a match created (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 19.8 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň: season averages side by side
| Lillestrøm | Per match this season | Viktoria Plzeň |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 0.78 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.41 |
| 12.0 | Shots | 19.8 |
| 2.8 | On target | 7.3 |
| 55.3 | Possession % | 50.3 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.3 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.66 |
Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.65 for Lillestrøm and 1.31 for Viktoria Plzeň - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 60%. Lillestrøm have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lillestrøm 2-1 Viktoria Plzeň
Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň betting tips
- Tip 1: Lillestrøm win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.96 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň: questions and answers
When is Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň?
Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň played?
At Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller, Lillestrøm's home ground.
Who will win Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň?
Lillestrøm are the favourites: Lillestrøm 45%, draw 25%, Viktoria Plzeň 30%. Our prediction is Lillestrøm 2-1 Viktoria Plzeň.
How many goals will there be in Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.