Anderlecht vs Salzburg Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Lotto Park, Brussels · updated 2026-10-22
Anderlecht welcome Salzburg to Lotto Park in Brussels in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Anderlecht have played 8 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 63% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 60% win rate. Salzburg have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Anderlecht are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 27% and Salzburg at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.47, Salzburg 1.12.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Anderlecht: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.0).
- Shots: 11.4 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Salzburg: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.90 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 57.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 17% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Anderlecht vs Salzburg: season averages side by side
| Anderlecht | Per match this season | Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 |
| 11.4 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 5.5 | On target | 5.5 |
| 47.1 | Possession % | 57.8 |
| 38% | Clean sheets % | 67% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 17% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Anderlecht vs Salzburg prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.47 for Anderlecht and 1.12 for Salzburg - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 53%. Anderlecht have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Anderlecht 1-0 Salzburg
Anderlecht vs Salzburg betting tips
- Tip 1: Anderlecht win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.58 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (48%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 10.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Anderlecht vs Salzburg: questions and answers
When is Anderlecht vs Salzburg?
Anderlecht vs Salzburg is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Anderlecht vs Salzburg played?
At Lotto Park, Brussels, Anderlecht's home ground.
Who will win Anderlecht vs Salzburg?
Anderlecht are the favourites: Anderlecht 44%, draw 27%, Salzburg 28%. Our prediction is Anderlecht 1-0 Salzburg.
How many goals will there be in Anderlecht vs Salzburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.