Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Bundesliga · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Bayer Leverkusen welcome SC Freiburg to BayArena in Leverkusen in Bundesliga Gameweek 6 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Bayer Leverkusen have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. SC Freiburg have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayer Leverkusen are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 23% and SC Freiburg at 21%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 at 1.86, SC Freiburg at 2.04. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.99, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Bayer Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.53 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 22.5 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 61.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.23 a match created, 0.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.07.
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: season averages side by side
| Bayer Leverkusen | Per match | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 2.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.23 |
| 0.89 | xG conceded | 0.99 |
| 2.50 | Goals | 3.00 |
| 22.5 | Shots | 19.0 |
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 6.5 |
| 2.8 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 75.0 | Pressure share % | 70.2 |
| 13.3 | Tackles | 11.0 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 10.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
Bayer Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 79 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 69 · High shot volume, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
SC Freiburg
- Derry Scherhant LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Chance creator, High shot volume (top 15% of his position)
- Matthias Ginter CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 72
Igor Matanovic, 23, plays as a centre-forward for SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 72
- SS · Second striker Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 9.17 / 90 | 95% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.17 / 90 | 91% |
| Shots | 4.17 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots on target | 60% | 83% |
| Goals | 0.83 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, High shot volume.
- What Igor Matanovic is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Igor Matanovic's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction
Bayer Leverkusen should have more of the ball; Bayer Leverkusen work the ball wide and cross; SC Freiburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.77 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.60 for SC Freiburg - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 67%. Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayer Leverkusen to win 56% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.37 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: questions and answers
When is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 6.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg played?
At BayArena, Leverkusen, Bayer Leverkusen's home ground.
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Bayer Leverkusen are the favourites: Bayer Leverkusen 56%, draw 23%, SC Freiburg 21%. Our prediction is Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 SC Freiburg.
Who is the player to watch in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.