Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 5
Bundesliga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Union Berlin welcome SV Elversberg to Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin in Bundesliga Gameweek 5 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Union Berlin have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 4.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. SV Elversberg have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Union Berlin 41%, the draw 26%, SV Elversberg 33%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Union Berlin -0.25 at 1.99, SV Elversberg at 1.89. The main goals line is 3: over 2.04, under 1.90, which gives over 48%.
Union Berlin: form and key numbers
In style Union Berlin are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 2.48 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.57.
SV Elversberg: form and key numbers
In style SV Elversberg are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.50 a match created, 2.09 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 42.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: season averages side by side
| Union Berlin | Per match | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.50 |
| 2.48 | xG conceded | 2.09 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 10.3 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 1.3 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 38.2 | Pressure share % | 33.5 |
| 17.8 | Tackles | 12.5 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
Union Berlin
- Felix Uduokhai CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Blocks shots, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Tom Alexander Rothe LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 17% of his position)
SV Elversberg
- Nicolas Kristof GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Lukas Pinckert CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Box defender, Blocks shots (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Leopold Querfeld
Leopold Querfeld, 22 · FC Union Berlin · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70
Leopold Querfeld, 22, plays as a centre-back for FC Union Berlin in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in clearances and aerial duels won. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 70
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 10.00 / 90 | 98% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.67 / 90 | 95% |
| Duels won | 7.67 / 90 | 95% |
| Long balls | 5.00 / 90 | 89% |
| Tackles | 2.67 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Box defender, Dominant in the air, Duel winner.
- What Leopold Querfeld is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Leopold Querfeld's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg prediction
Union Berlin should have more of the ball; Union Berlin are a threat in the air and from set pieces; SV Elversberg like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 1.68 for Union Berlin and 2.30 for SV Elversberg - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 74%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Union Berlin 1-1 SV Elversberg
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 76% by the model, 3.97 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: questions and answers
When is Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 5.
Where is Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg played?
At Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin, Union Berlin's home ground.
Who will win Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
It is close: Union Berlin 41%, draw 26%, SV Elversberg 33%. Our prediction is Union Berlin 1-1 SV Elversberg.
Who is the player to watch in Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
Leopold Querfeld of FC Union Berlin: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.