Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia · updated 2026-10-22
Levski Sofia welcome Jagiellonia Białystok to Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov in Sofia in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Levski Sofia have played 8 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 75% win rate. Jagiellonia Białystok have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Levski Sofia 32%, the draw 34%, Jagiellonia Białystok 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Levski Sofia 0.91, Jagiellonia Białystok 0.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 29% · both teams to score: 38%.
- Most likely score: 0–0 (16%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Levski Sofia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.31 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.5).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 53.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
Jagiellonia Białystok: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.58 a match created (goals minus xG: +9.5).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 43.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.61.
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok: season averages side by side
| Levski Sofia | Per match this season | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.58 |
| 10.8 | Shots | 10.8 |
| 3.4 | On target | 5.2 |
| 53.1 | Possession % | 43.7 |
| 63% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 83% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 2.2 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.58 | Average rating | 6.61 |
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 1.9 goals - 0.91 for Levski Sofia and 0.97 for Jagiellonia Białystok - with over 2.5 goals at 29% and both teams scoring at 38%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Levski Sofia 0-0 Jagiellonia Białystok
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 35%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 71% by the model, 1.88 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok: questions and answers
When is Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok played?
At Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia, Levski Sofia's home ground.
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
It is close: Levski Sofia 32%, draw 34%, Jagiellonia Białystok 35%. Our prediction is Levski Sofia 0-0 Jagiellonia Białystok.
How many goals will there be in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Moneyball's model expects about 1.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 29%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.