Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 9
Ligue 1 · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Vélodrome, Marseille · updated 2026-10-18
Olympique Marseille welcome Toulouse to Stade Vélodrome in Marseille in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Olympique Marseille have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Toulouse have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Olympique Marseille 42%, the draw 24%, Toulouse 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Olympique Marseille 1.78, Toulouse 1.61.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Olympique Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Marseille keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Toulouse: form and key numbers
In style Toulouse take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.71 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 13.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 50.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse: season averages side by side
| Olympique Marseille | Per match this season | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.80 |
| 1.94 | xG conceded | 1.71 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 4.3 | On target | 4.6 |
| 57.5 | Possession % | 50.3 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Olympique Marseille
- Emerson LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Creator, Crosser (top 5% of his position)
- Jeffrey de Lange GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 12% of his position)
Toulouse
- Cristian Cásseres Jr. CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 79 · Press-resistant, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Rasmus Nicolaisen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 57 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Casper Tengstedt
Casper Tengstedt, 26 · Toulouse · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 62
Casper Tengstedt, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Toulouse in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.14 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 5.43 / 90 | 95% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 82% |
| Goals | 0.86 / 90 | 79% |
| Big chances missed | 0.57 / 90 | 43% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Takes high-quality shots.
- What Casper Tengstedt is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Casper Tengstedt's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse prediction
Olympique Marseille should have more of the ball; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.78 for Olympique Marseille and 1.61 for Toulouse - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 67%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Olympique Marseille 1-1 Toulouse
Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 42%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.39 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Brest vs Nice Friday 23 October 2026
- Toulouse vs Troyes Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lens vs Paris Saturday 24 October 2026
- Monaco vs LOSC Lille Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rennes vs Strasbourg Sunday 25 October 2026
- Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre Sunday 25 October 2026
- Auxerre vs Le Mans Sunday 25 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Lorient Sunday 25 October 2026
Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse: questions and answers
When is Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse?
Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9.
Where is Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse played?
At Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Olympique Marseille's home ground.
Who will win Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse?
It is close: Olympique Marseille 42%, draw 24%, Toulouse 35%. Our prediction is Olympique Marseille 1-1 Toulouse.
Who is the player to watch in Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse?
Casper Tengstedt of Toulouse: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.