Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 9
Ligue 1 · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-11-01
Marseille welcome Toulouse to Stade Vélodrome in Marseille in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
Marseille have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Toulouse have played 8 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Marseille are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 26% and Toulouse at 29%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Marseille -0.5 at 2.00, Toulouse at 1.90. The main goals line is 3: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Marseille keep the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 2.08 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.7).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Toulouse: form and key numbers
In style Toulouse take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Marseille vs Toulouse: season averages side by side
| Marseille | Per match | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| 1.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 |
| 2.08 | xG conceded | 1.56 |
| 2.25 | Goals | 1.50 |
| 12.9 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 4.9 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 1.5 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 48.4 | Pressure share % | 52.5 |
| 13.5 | Tackles | 15.1 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 16.0 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Marseille vs Toulouse: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Marseille have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Marseille 9, Toulouse 5 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Toulouse 0-1 Marseille (March 7th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Marseille won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Mar 2026 | Toulouse | 0 – 1 | Marseille |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Marseille | 2 – 2 | Toulouse |
| 6 Apr 2025 | Marseille | 3 – 2 | Toulouse |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Toulouse | 1 – 3 | Marseille |
Players to watch
Marseille
- Timothy Weah RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 70 · Hard to dribble past, Ball-winner (top 2% of his position)
- Nayef Aguerd CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 66 · Dominant in the air, Ball circulator (top 5% of his position)
Toulouse
- Cristian Cásseres Jr. CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 77 · Creator, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Rasmus Nicolaisen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Casper Tengstedt
Casper Tengstedt, 26 · Toulouse · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 61
Casper Tengstedt, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Toulouse in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.99 / 90 | 93% |
| Shots | 4.89 / 90 | 90% |
| Goals | 1.11 / 90 | 87% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 79% |
| Big chances missed | 0.44 / 90 | 48% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Clinical finisher.
- What Casper Tengstedt is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Casper Tengstedt's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Marseille vs Toulouse prediction
Marseille should have more of the ball; Toulouse like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.95 for Marseille and 1.63 for Toulouse - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 69%. Marseille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Marseille 3-1 Toulouse
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Marseille vs Toulouse betting tips
- Tip 1: Marseille win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 69% by the model, 3.58 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Marseille vs Toulouse in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Ligue 1 previews
- Nice vs Rennes Sunday 1 November 2026
- Troyes vs Le Mans Sunday 1 November 2026
- Lorient vs Brest Sunday 1 November 2026
- Lyon vs Angers Sunday 1 November 2026
- Strasbourg vs Auxerre Sunday 1 November 2026
- Lyon vs Angers Sunday 1 November 2026
Marseille vs Toulouse: questions and answers
When is Marseille vs Toulouse?
Marseille vs Toulouse is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9.
Where is Marseille vs Toulouse played?
At Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Marseille's home ground.
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
Marseille are the favourites: Marseille 45%, draw 26%, Toulouse 29%. Our prediction is Marseille 3-1 Toulouse.
Who is the player to watch in Marseille vs Toulouse?
Casper Tengstedt of Toulouse: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Toulouse?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.