Paris vs Monaco Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 9
Ligue 1 · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Stade Jean Bouin, Paris · updated 2026-10-18
Paris welcome Monaco to Stade Jean Bouin in Paris in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Paris have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Monaco have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Paris are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 29% and Monaco at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Paris 1.39, Monaco 0.93.
- Over 2.5 goals: 41% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Paris: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 0.83 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.2).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Monaco: form and key numbers
In style Monaco take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Paris vs Monaco: season averages side by side
| Paris | Per match this season | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.54 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.20 |
| 0.83 | xG conceded | 1.47 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 4.3 | On target | 4.5 |
| 51.5 | Possession % | 47.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.97 |
Players to watch
Paris
- Pierre Lees-Melou DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Ilan Kebbal RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 58 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 24% of his position)
Monaco
- Vanderson RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 76 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
- Lamine Camara CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lassine Sinayoko
Lassine Sinayoko, 26 · Paris · CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 65
Lassine Sinayoko, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Paris in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 65
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 1.90 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.64 / 90 | 79% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 75% |
| Shots on target | 50% | 74% |
| Shots | 3.45 / 90 | 72% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Chance creator.
- What Lassine Sinayoko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lassine Sinayoko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Paris vs Monaco prediction
Paris should have more of the ball; Monaco like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.39 for Paris and 0.93 for Monaco - with over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams scoring at 46%. Paris have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Paris 1-0 Monaco
Paris vs Monaco betting tips
- Tip 1: Paris win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 2.32 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Brest vs Nice Friday 23 October 2026
- Toulouse vs Troyes Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lens vs Paris Saturday 24 October 2026
- Monaco vs LOSC Lille Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rennes vs Strasbourg Sunday 25 October 2026
- Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre Sunday 25 October 2026
- Auxerre vs Le Mans Sunday 25 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Lorient Sunday 25 October 2026
Paris vs Monaco: questions and answers
When is Paris vs Monaco?
Paris vs Monaco is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 9.
Where is Paris vs Monaco played?
At Stade Jean Bouin, Paris, Paris's home ground.
Who will win Paris vs Monaco?
Paris are the favourites: Paris 47%, draw 29%, Monaco 24%. Our prediction is Paris 1-0 Monaco.
Who is the player to watch in Paris vs Monaco?
Lassine Sinayoko of Paris: a pressing forward with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Paris vs Monaco?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.