SV Elversberg vs Augsburg Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
SV Elversberg welcome Augsburg to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg in Bundesliga Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
SV Elversberg have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Augsburg have played 4 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: SV Elversberg 38%, the draw 25%, Augsburg 37%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is SV Elversberg -0.25 at 2.17, Augsburg at 1.75. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.97, under 1.92, which gives over 49%.
SV Elversberg: form and key numbers
In style SV Elversberg are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.50 a match created, 2.09 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 42.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Augsburg: form and key numbers
In style Augsburg are happy without the ball, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.83 a match created, 2.31 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 39.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.99.
SV Elversberg vs Augsburg: season averages side by side
| SV Elversberg | Per match | Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.83 |
| 2.09 | xG conceded | 2.31 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 2.75 |
| 10.3 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 7.3 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 33.5 | Pressure share % | 31.0 |
| 12.5 | Tackles | 16.5 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 8.8 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
SV Elversberg
- Nicolas Kristof GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 60 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Lukas Pinckert CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 52 · Box defender, Blocks shots (top 5% of his position)
Augsburg
- Finn Dahmen GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 7% of his position)
- Marius Wolf RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch, 32 · FC Augsburg · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 70
Michael Gregoritsch, 32, plays as a centre-forward for FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and aerial duels won. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 89% | 97% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.99 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals | 0.92 / 90 | 83% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 72% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Dominant in the air, Clinical finisher.
- What Michael Gregoritsch is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Gregoritsch's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SV Elversberg vs Augsburg prediction
SV Elversberg should have more of the ball; SV Elversberg like to take players on; Augsburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals - 2.01 for SV Elversberg and 1.91 for Augsburg - with over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams scoring at 74%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: SV Elversberg 1-1 Augsburg
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
SV Elversberg vs Augsburg betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 75% by the model, 3.92 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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SV Elversberg vs Augsburg: questions and answers
When is SV Elversberg vs Augsburg?
SV Elversberg vs Augsburg is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 6.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Augsburg played?
At URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg, SV Elversberg's home ground.
Who will win SV Elversberg vs Augsburg?
It is close: SV Elversberg 38%, draw 25%, Augsburg 37%. Our prediction is SV Elversberg 1-1 Augsburg.
Who is the player to watch in SV Elversberg vs Augsburg?
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SV Elversberg vs Augsburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 75%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.