★ Moneyball Original · Scouting
The 15 best under-21 players in the Premier League right now, ranked by the numbers
By Moneyball Editorial · published · updated
Every season the Premier League produces a new set of young players that everyone claims to have spotted first. Lists of them are usually made from reputation: the biggest fee, the most famous academy, the best highlight clip.
This one is made differently. Every player aged 21 or under with at least 450 minutes this season is scored the same way, on what he does per 90 minutes compared with every player in his position. Nobody chooses the names. The data does.
How to read this, in plain words. The Moneyball Score is a number from 0 to 100. It asks one question: compared with every player in the same position, how much does this player do of the things his position is there to do, for every 90 minutes he plays? Around 50 is an average regular. Above 70 is a starter for a club in European competition. Above 85 is among the best in the world. Potential is where the score is expected to go as he ages, from the way players in his position usually develop. Moneyball Value is a fair transfer fee worked out from his score, age, position, league and minutes. A young player with few minutes is deliberately scored with caution: the model would rather be late than fooled.
The list
| # | Player | Age | Club | Position | Minutes | Moneyball Score | Potential | Moneyball Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Ngumoha | 18 | Liverpool | Winger | 488 | 73 | 100 | €54.5M |
| 2 | Kobbie Mainoo | 21 | Manchester United | Central midfielder | 723 | 70 | 89 | €57.3M |
| 3 | Mathys Tel | 21 | Tottenham Hotspur | Winger | 491 | 68 | 79 | €54.9M |
| 4 | Luka Vuskovic | 19 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Centre-back | 999 | 67 | 95 | €51.2M |
| 5 | Jaydee Canvot | 20 | Crystal Palace | Centre-back | 1006 | 66 | 91 | €49.2M |
| 6 | Chema Andrés | 21 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Defensive midfielder | 476 | 65 | 78 | €40.9M |
| 7 | Charalampos Kostoulas | 19 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Centre-forward | 731 | 62 | 90 | €59.7M |
| 8 | Jérémy Jacquet | 21 | Liverpool | Centre-back | 1181 | 62 | 79 | €40.3M |
| 9 | Lewis Miley | 20 | Newcastle United | Central midfielder | 577 | 61 | 81 | €41.8M |
| 10 | Trey Nyoni | 19 | Liverpool | Central midfielder | 475 | 59 | 88 | €33.5M |
| 11 | Tyrique George | 20 | Everton | Winger | 640 | 56 | 75 | €39.4M |
| 12 | Johan Manzambi | 21 | Aston Villa | Attacking midfielder | 602 | 52 | 63 | €41.6M |
| 13 | Leny Yoro | 21 | Manchester United | Centre-back | 695 | 51 | 57 | €21.9M |
| 14 | Myles Lewis-Skelly | 20 | Arsenal | Defensive midfielder | 544 | 46 | 58 | €19.6M |
| 15 | Abdoul Ouattara | 21 | Ipswich Town | Full-back | 579 | 45 | 57 | €18.0M |
The rule: aged 21 or under, playing in the Premier League, with at least 450 minutes this season. Minutes are this season's, in the league and the European cups. "Potential" is the highest score the age curve gives him in the next four years. "Moneyball Value" is a fair fee, not a quoted price.
The top 8, one by one
1. Rio Ngumoha (Liverpool)
Rio Ngumoha, 18, plays as a winger for Liverpool in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and fouls won. Weakest in dispossessed. His Moneyball Score is 73, and the age curve takes him to about 100. This season: 0 goals and 2 assists in 488 minutes. Moneyball Value: €54.5M. His full report in Scouting Players Research.
2. Kobbie Mainoo (Manchester United)
Kobbie Mainoo, 21, plays as a central midfielder for Manchester United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and passes. Weakest in expected goals. His Moneyball Score is 70, and the age curve takes him to about 89. This season: 0 goals and 1 assist in 723 minutes. Moneyball Value: €57.3M. His full report in Scouting Players Research.
3. Mathys Tel (Tottenham Hotspur)
Mathys Tel, 21, plays as a winger for Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and accurate crosses. Weakest in dispossessed. His Moneyball Score is 68, and the age curve takes him to about 79. This season: 1 goal and 0 assists in 491 minutes. Moneyball Value: €54.9M. His full report in Scouting Players Research.
4. Luka Vuskovic (Brighton & Hove Albion)
Luka Vuskovic, 19, plays as a centre-back for Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and clearances. Weakest in tackles. His Moneyball Score is 67, and the age curve takes him to about 95. This season: 1 goal and 1 assist in 999 minutes. Moneyball Value: €51.2M. His full report in Scouting Players Research.
5. Jaydee Canvot (Crystal Palace)
Jaydee Canvot, 20, plays as a centre-back for Crystal Palace in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in tackles and duels won. Weakest in dribbled past. His Moneyball Score is 66, and the age curve takes him to about 91. He has played 1006 minutes this season. Moneyball Value: €49.2M. His full report in Scouting Players Research.
6. Chema Andrés (Brighton & Hove Albion)
Chema Andrés, 21, plays as a defensive midfielder for Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in dispossessed and duels won. Weakest in long balls. His Moneyball Score is 65, and the age curve takes him to about 78. This season: 1 goal and 1 assist in 476 minutes. Moneyball Value: €40.9M. His full report in Scouting Players Research.
7. Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton & Hove Albion)
Charalampos Kostoulas, 19, plays as a centre-forward for Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in duels won and shots. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). His Moneyball Score is 62, and the age curve takes him to about 90. This season: 3 goals and 2 assists in 731 minutes. Moneyball Value: €59.7M. His full report in Scouting Players Research.
8. Jérémy Jacquet (Liverpool)
Jérémy Jacquet, 21, plays as a centre-back for Liverpool in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in long balls and tackles. Weakest in clearances. His Moneyball Score is 62, and the age curve takes him to about 79. He has played 1181 minutes this season. Moneyball Value: €40.3M. His full report in Scouting Players Research.
What the list tells us
The Premier League is the hardest league in the world for a young player to get minutes in, because every club can afford a ready-made senior instead. So a place on this list means more than the same score elsewhere: these players are keeping experienced internationals out of the team.
Liverpool have 3 names on the list, Brighton & Hove Albion have 3. More than one name from the same club is rarely a coincidence: it usually means a coach who gives minutes and a recruitment team that knows what it is looking for. By position, the most common is centre-back (4 of 15).
The youngest name is Rio Ngumoha, 18. The biggest gap between today and the age curve belongs to Trey Nyoni: 59 now, about 88 at his best in the next four years. And the lowest fair fee on the list is Abdoul Ouattara's, at €18.0M, which is where a club with a small budget should look first.
A warning that belongs on every list like this one. A score is a summary of what a player has done, not a promise of what he will do. Injuries, a change of coach, a move to a stronger league and plain luck all move careers in ways no number sees coming. Use the list the way a scout would: as the place to start watching, not the place to stop thinking.
How the list is made
Every player in the leagues Moneyball follows is scored the same way. His figures are divided by his minutes, adjusted for the strength of his league, pulled toward the average of his position when he has played little, blended with last season, and then ranked against the players in his own position. Nothing is typed in by hand, and nobody at Moneyball chooses who goes on the list. That is also why some names will surprise you: the model has never seen a highlight clip and does not know which clubs are famous.
- Per 90 minutes: every figure divided by minutes played, so a substitute and a starter can be compared fairly.
- League-strength adjustment: Moneyball Scout weighs a season in Ligue 1 at 0.90 of the same season in the Premier League (Serie A 0.95, La Liga 0.96, Bundesliga 0.94).
- Bayesian shrinkage: with few minutes a figure is pulled toward the average of his position, so three good matches are not mistaken for a great player.
- Last season at 70% weight: last season's figures are blended in, a little lighter than this season's.
- Percentiles within his position: a centre-back is ranked against centre-backs, a winger against wingers. The 90th percentile means better than 90 of every 100.
- Role templates: each position is judged on what it is there to do; a striker on chances and goals, a full-back on defending and crossing.
- Position familiarity: where else he could play, from where he has played.
- Win-rate impact: the points he adds to a club over a season, by replaying its matches with and without him through the Dixon-Coles model.
- Expected goals (xG): the quality of every chance, so a team is judged on what it created and allowed, not only on what went in.
- Expected points: each match's xG run through a Dixon-Coles score matrix (the Poisson model with the low-score correction the Match Board uses) to give the points a performance usually earns.
- Age curve: how players of his position usually develop year by year, used for his potential.
- Moneyball Value: a fair fee from his score, age, position, league and minutes.
Analysis by Moneyball Editorial. The list is worked out from the Sportmonks data at each update; names move up and down as the season goes on. Moneyball Value is an estimate, not a quoted price.
Open Scouting Players Research Rio Ngumoha in the Stats Centre
Questions
- Who is the best under-21 player in the Premier League in 2026/27?
- On Moneyball Score today it is Rio Ngumoha of Liverpool (73 out of 100), ahead of Kobbie Mainoo and Mathys Tel. The list is worked out again at every update.
- What is the Moneyball Score?
- A number from 0 to 100 for how much a player does of what his position is there to do, per 90 minutes, against every player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of his league and for how many minutes he has played.
- Why is a well-known name missing from the list?
- The list only reads players with 450 minutes or more this season who fit the rule in the title. A player who is injured, outside the age limit or short of minutes is not on it.