★ Moneyball Original · Team analysis
Why Brentford are so hard to beat: the numbers behind their rise
By Moneyball Editorial · published
Brentford do not need the ball to hurt you, and they do not let you hurt them. With 45.5% possession (15th of 20) they are one of the least possession-hungry sides in the Premier League, yet they concede only 1.00 goals a match (5th). Here is how, measure by measure.
A wall in the box
The chances they allow are poor ones: 1.47 expected goals against a match (8th). They win 20.8 aerial duels a match (2nd), make 17.0 tackles (4th) and 10.3 interceptions (4th). Crosses and long balls into their box tend to come straight back out.
Mixed going forward, and dangerous from dead balls
Brentford play 20.5 long balls a match (9th) and take 4.0 corners (15th): with that many aerial duels won, set pieces are a weapon, not a way to restart. They create 1.87 expected goals a match (4th) from 15.8 shots (4th), and score 2.00 (4th).
Brentford against the league
| Measure | Brentford | Rank of 20 |
|---|---|---|
| Goals against per match | 1.00 | 5th |
| xG against per match | 1.47 | 8th |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 7th |
| Aerial duels won per match | 20.8 | 2nd |
| Tackles per match | 17.0 | 4th |
| Interceptions per match | 10.3 | 4th |
| Long balls per match | 20.5 | 9th |
| Corners per match | 4.0 | 15th |
| xG per match | 1.87 | 4th |
| Goals per match | 2.00 | 4th |
| Possession | 45.5% | 15th |
| Wins at home | 100% | 1st |
6 league matches. Rank 1 is the best in the league; for goals and xG against, the fewest.
The players who make it work
| Player | Minutes | Rating | Goals | Assists | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitaly Janelt | 540 | 7.24 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 |
| Caoimhín Kelleher | 540 | 7.18 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Schade | 500 | 7.13 | 3 | 1 | 2.51 |
| Jannik Schuster | 299 | 7.06 | 0 | 1 | 0.12 |
| Kristoffer Ajer | 540 | 6.94 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 |
The Moneyball view
The goals match the chances (2.00 scored against 1.87 xG a match): nothing here depends on luck. A side that defends its box this well and scores from set pieces rarely loses by much, and that is what makes it so hard to beat. Every figure here updates itself after each round.
Every club in the Stats Centre
Questions
- Why are Brentford hard to beat?
- They concede 1.00 goals a match (5th in the Premier League) and 1.47 expected goals (8th), and they win 20.8 aerial duels a match (2nd).
- Do Brentford need the ball to win?
- No: they average 45.5% possession (15th) and play 20.5 long balls a match. They are dangerous without it.
- Where do the figures come from?
- Sportmonks match data for every club in the league this season, ranked by the Moneyball engine and updated after every round.