★ Moneyball Original · Opinion
Ballon d'Or winner, but not in the FIFPRO World XI: why did Harry Kane miss out?
By Moneyball Editorial · published · updated
On 26 October, at the London Palladium, Harry Kane was given the Ballon d'Or. Two weeks later the world's professional footballers published their own team of the year, and he was not in it. Almost 20,000 players voted for the FIFPRO Men's World 11. Four forwards got more ballots than the man the journalists had just called the best player on earth.
It looks like a contradiction. It is really two different questions put to two different electorates. This column takes the five forwards of the vote and reads them with twelve Moneyball methods and the Stats Centre, to see which electorate the numbers agree with.
1. The vote, exactly
FIFPRO asked its members to name their three best players in each position for the period from 4 August 2025 to 19 July 2026: last season and the World Cup. The share is the percentage of voters who named a player. Among the forwards: Kylian Mbappé 46%, Lamine Yamal 37.4%, Lionel Messi 29.5%, Erling Haaland 28.4% and then Harry Kane 27.6%. Michael Olise, his Bayern Munich team-mate, was sixth on 15.6%.
The margin between fourth and fifth is 0.8 percentage points. With about 20,000 voters that is roughly 160 ballots. Kane did not lose an argument. He lost a photo finish.
The rest of the eleven: David Raya in goal, the only player in any position named by more than half the voters (51.9%); Achraf Hakimi, Pau Cubarsí and Nuno Mendes in defence; Rodri, Jude Bellingham and Vitinha in midfield.
2. The five forwards in the season the vote judged
| Forward | FIFPRO vote | Minutes | Goals | Goals per 90 | xG per 90 | Assists per 90 | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 46.0% | 558 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 6.74 |
| Lamine Yamal | 37.4% | 2296 | 13 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 8.02 |
| Lionel Messi | 29.5% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Erling Haaland | 28.4% | 2960 | 24 | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.24 | 7.35 |
| Harry Kane | 27.6% | 2379 | 26 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.19 | 7.87 |
In the season the players were voting on, Kane scored 26 league and European goals in 2379 minutes: 0.98 per 90. Among the 4 forwards of the vote Moneyball holds data for, that is 1st. On expected goals per 90 he is 1st, on assists per 90 3rd, and on match rating 2nd. Lionel Messi played outside the competitions in the Stats Centre, so his row is empty: Moneyball does not estimate what it cannot measure.
3. Against every forward in Europe: percentiles
Five names are a small sample. The fairer test is each of them against every forward with 900 minutes in the leagues and European competitions Moneyball follows.
| Forward | Goals per 90: percentile | xG per 90: percentile | Shots per 90 | Key passes per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 84th | 28th | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Lamine Yamal | 87th | 83rd | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| Erling Haaland | 98th | 97th | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| Harry Kane | 100th | 100th | 4.5 | 1.5 |
Kane's goals per 90 sit in the 100th percentile and his xG per 90 in the 100th. There is no reading of those two numbers in which he is not one of the best finishers alive. xG matters here because it removes the finishing streak: it counts the chances a striker gets to, not the ones that happened to go in.
4. Two orders: the ballot and the data
| Order | By the players' vote | By goals + assists per 90 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kylian Mbappé (46.0%) | Harry Kane (1.17) |
| 2 | Lamine Yamal (37.4%) | Erling Haaland (0.97) |
| 3 | Lionel Messi (29.5%) | Lamine Yamal (0.94) |
| 4 | Erling Haaland (28.4%) | Kylian Mbappé (0.65) |
| 5 | Harry Kane (27.6%) | – |
On goals plus assists per 90 minutes Kane is first of the forwards we can measure. The players ranked him fifth. That is the whole story in one table.
5. Why players vote differently from journalists
Three things, none of them a conspiracy.
The format. A Ballon d'Or juror ranks the best players of the year in order, and the forward with the most goals for the champions of Germany and a strong World Cup is an obvious number one. A FIFPRO voter names three forwards, unranked. Every ballot has room for Mbappé and Yamal and one more, and the third name is where Kane, Haaland and Messi split the vote. Haaland 28.4, Kane 27.6, Messi 29.5: three players inside two points.
The role. Players vote for what they find hardest to play against. A winger who beats two defenders is remembered by every full-back who has tried to stop him. A centre-forward who scores from six yards is remembered by the scoreboard. Kane's game is the least spectacular of the five and, per 90, among the most productive.
The name. Cristiano Ronaldo, playing in Saudi Arabia, was named by 13.2% of voters, more than Ousmane Dembélé and Raphinha. Bruno Fernandes got more votes than Declan Rice, who finished twelve places above him in the Ballon d'Or. A ballot of 20,000 footballers across every league in the world rewards the players everybody has seen, and the Bundesliga is watched less than La Liga or the Premier League.
6. This season: has anything changed?
| Forward | Minutes 2026/27 | Goals | Goals per 90 | xG per 90 | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 623 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 6.91 |
| Lamine Yamal | 1355 | 13 | 0.86 | 0.62 | 8.45 |
| Erling Haaland | 1160 | 14 | 1.09 | 0.75 | 7.43 |
| Harry Kane | 1074 | 8 | 0.67 | 0.91 | 7.81 |
In 2026/27 Kane has 8 goals in 1074 minutes, 0.67 per 90, with a match rating of 7.81. On Moneyball's Ballon d'Or Index for this season, which weighs rating, goals and assists per 90, xG and the level of the competition, he is 4th.
| # | Player | Club | Index | Rating | G+A per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raphinha | FC Barcelona | 99.3 | 8.11 | 1.95 |
| 2 | Lamine Yamal | FC Barcelona | 99.1 | 8.45 | 1.66 |
| 3 | Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid | 98.9 | 7.87 | 1.26 |
| 4 | Harry Kane | FC Bayern München | 98.9 | 7.81 | 1.59 |
| 5 | Donyell Malen | Roma | 96.6 | 7.36 | 1.58 |
| 6 | Lassine Sinayoko | Paris | 96.2 | 7.82 | 1.45 |
| 7 | Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 96.2 | 7.43 | 1.09 |
| 8 | Fermín López | FC Barcelona | 95.9 | 7.53 | 1.34 |
| 9 | Michael Olise | FC Bayern München | 95.5 | 8.14 | 1.17 |
| 10 | Florian Thauvin | Lens | 95.5 | 7.77 | 1.16 |
7. Scouting Players Research: the report on Kane
Harry Kane, 33, plays as a centre-forward for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in big chances missed.
| Scouting Players Research | Harry Kane |
|---|---|
| Role and type | Centre-forward, poacher |
| Moneyball Score (league and European cups, adjusted for strength) | 78 |
| Rank among the centre-forwards of 16 leagues | 4th of 1149 |
| Rank among the centre-forwards of his league | 3rd of 49 |
| Moneyball Value (estimate) | €9.6M to €28.4M (mid €19.0M) |
| Age curve: score in 1, 2, 3, 4 years | 73 · 69 · 65 · 61 |
| What Scouting weighs for his role | Percentile among centre-forwards |
|---|---|
| Expected goals | 100th |
| Goals, luck taken out | 100th |
| Shots | 99th |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 89th |
| Aerial duels won | 31st |
| Shots on target | 70th |
| Duels won | 33rd |
| Key passes | 97th |
The players most like him
| Most like him in Scouting | Club | Similarity |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Suárez | Sporting CP | 89% |
| Donyell Malen | Roma | 88% |
| Raphinha | FC Barcelona | 87% |
| Younes Ebnoutalib | Eintracht Frankfurt | 86% |
| Lautaro Martínez | Inter | 86% |
The Moneyball verdict
The data sides with the journalists. In the season the players were voting on, Kane was 1st of these forwards for goals per 90 and 1st for expected goals. He missed the World 11 by about 160 ballots out of 20,000, in a format that names three forwards without ranking them and in a position where three players finished within two points of each other.
That does not make the players wrong. They were asked a different question: who are the forwards you would least like to face? It is possible to be the best player of the year and the fifth most feared forward in the same twelve months. Kane has spent a career being better than he looks. The FIFPRO vote is the most complete proof of that yet.
- Expected goals (xG): the quality of every chance, so a team is judged on what it created and allowed, not only on what went in.
- Finishing and goalkeeping regression: goals against xG at both ends. A big gap either way rarely lasts a season.
- Per 90 minutes: goals, xG, assists, shots and key passes divided by minutes, so a player is not rewarded for simply playing more.
- Percentiles: each figure against every forward with 900 minutes in the leagues and European competitions Moneyball follows.
- Two orders: the players' vote share set beside goals plus assists per 90, rank by rank.
- Vote margin: a share of the ballots turned into ballots, from the published number of voters.
- Ballon d'Or Index: rating, goals and assists per 90, xG and the level of the competition in one number.
- League-strength adjustment: Moneyball Scout weighs a season in Ligue 1 at 0.90 of the same season in the Premier League (Serie A 0.95, La Liga 0.96, Bundesliga 0.94).
- Player ratings per 90, from the same Sportmonks data that runs Moneyball Scout.
- European weighting: Champions League minutes read at the competition's own level.
- Moneyball Score, value, age curve and similarity (Scouting Players Research): every figure that matters for his role as a percentile against his position.
- Sample honesty: a player outside the competitions we hold has an empty row, never an estimate.
Analysis by Moneyball Editorial. The FIFPRO vote shares, the voting period and the eleven are the published results (FIFPRO, 10 November 2026, as reported by Sports Illustrated and Bola.net); the Ballon d'Or was awarded on 26 October 2026. Every other figure is read from the Sportmonks data at each update, and the sentences around it change with it.
Harry Kane in the Stats Centre Harry Kane in Scouting Players Research Kylian Mbappé in the Stats Centre Lamine Yamal in the Stats Centre Lionel Messi in the Stats Centre
Questions
- Why is Harry Kane not in the FIFPRO World XI 2026?
- He finished fifth among the forwards with 27.6% of the players' ballots. The four places went to Kylian Mbappé (46%), Lamine Yamal (37.4%), Lionel Messi (29.5%) and Erling Haaland (28.4%). He missed the eleven by 0.8 percentage points.
- Who votes for the FIFPRO World XI?
- Professional footballers. For the 2026 edition almost 20,000 players named their three best in each position for the period from 4 August 2025 to 19 July 2026. The Ballon d'Or is voted by journalists.
- Was Harry Kane better than the forwards who were picked?
- On goals per 90 minutes in the season the vote judged he was 1st of the 4 forwards Moneyball holds data for, and 1st on xG per 90.