★ Moneyball Original · Opinion
Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or: the case, read with ten Moneyball methods
By Moneyball Editorial · published
Harry Kane is the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner. At the London Palladium on Monday 26 October, Ronaldo Nazário handed the 70th Ballon d'Or to the Bayern Munich and England striker, 33. Kylian Mbappé finished second and Lamine Yamal third. Kane is the first Englishman to win it since Michael Owen in 2001.
For years the argument against Kane was not about goals. It was about trophies, about the nights that decide awards, about a striker so reliable that people stopped noticing him. The 2025/26 season ended that argument by sheer weight: 61 goals for Bayern in 51 matches by the published count (36 in the Bundesliga, 14 in the Champions League, 10 in the DFB-Pokal, 1 in the Super Cup), 73 for club and country, the European Golden Shoe and a third Bundesliga scoring title in three seasons.
Votes follow headlines, though, and Moneyball's job is to ask the second question: was it the right vote? Was the season as good underneath as it was on the scoresheet, and is the player who won it still that player now? This column reads Kane with ten Moneyball methods, from the expected goals behind every shot to Scouting Players Research's own report on him, and lets the figures answer.
1. The season the vote judged
| 2025/26 (Sportmonks) | Figure |
|---|---|
| Competition | Bundesliga |
| Matches | 31 |
| Minutes | 2379 |
| Goals | 26 |
| Assists | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 25.85 |
| Goals minus xG | +0.1 |
| Shots | 119 |
| Goals per 90 | 0.98 |
| Match rating | 7.87 |
In the data behind Moneyball, Kane's Bundesliga season reads 26 goals from 25.85 expected goals in 2379 minutes: 0.98 goals every 90 minutes. His goals and his chances agree almost exactly. That is the most sustainable kind of season a striker can have: no hot streak to explain away, just a striker getting the chances and taking them at the rate the chances deserve.
The detail that matters most is the second number. Goals can be a hot streak; expected goals are the chances a striker gets himself, and Kane's 0.98 xG per 90 put him in the 100th percentile of the forwards of Europe's five leagues, with his goals per 90 in the 100th. The chances were elite before a single one went in.
2. Against Europe's forwards, then and now
| Measure | 2025/26 | Percentile | 2026/27 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals per 90 | 0.98 | 100th | 0.90 | 90th |
| Expected goals (xG) per 90 | 0.98 | 100th | 0.96 | 97th |
| Assists per 90 | 0.19 | 73rd | 0.78 | 98th |
| Shots per 90 | 4.5 | 98th | 5.1 | 98th |
| xG per shot (chance quality) | 0.22 | 94th | 0.19 | 83rd |
| Key passes per 90 | 1.5 | 76th | 2.6 | 93rd |
| Match rating | 7.87 | 99th | 7.87 | 97th |
Percentiles against every forward in the five leagues: last season with 900 minutes or more, this season with 450 or more (the Champions League included). A 90th percentile means he is ahead of nine forwards in ten.
The shape of the profile tells you what kind of striker won this award. Kane is not a sprinter in behind or a dribbler; his numbers are built on shot volume and chance quality, and, unusually for a No.9, on creating: his key passes per 90 sit in the 76th percentile of Europe's forwards, the passes of a player who drops into midfield, turns and plays the ball a winger runs onto. That double life, finisher and creator, is why the Ballon d'Or could not be argued away this time.
3. The Moneyball Ballon d'Or Index
The vote is a vote; the index is the numbers alone: match rating 35%, goals and assists per 90 minutes 35%, xG per 90 20%, minutes 10%, each scored against the field. Run it on the season the Ballon d'Or judged and on the season since, and you see both whether the voters got it right and whether the winner is still the man to beat.
2025/26, the season the vote judged
| # | Player | Club | Index | Rating | G+A per 90 | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 98.4 | 7.35 | 0.97 | 0.71 |
| 2 | Harry Kane | FC Bayern München | 98.0 | 7.87 | 1.17 | 0.98 |
| 3 | Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid | 97.1 | 7.64 | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| 4 | Deniz Undav | VfB Stuttgart | 96.4 | 7.34 | 1.04 | 0.69 |
| 5 | Luis Díaz | FC Bayern München | 96.3 | 7.45 | 1.05 | 0.47 |
| 6 | Lamine Yamal | FC Barcelona | 96.0 | 8.02 | 0.94 | 0.47 |
| 7 | Michael Olise | FC Bayern München | 95.3 | 7.81 | 1.32 | 0.41 |
| 8 | Lautaro Martínez | Inter | 95.2 | 7.31 | 0.95 | 0.56 |
| 9 | Bruno Fernandes | Manchester United | 94.7 | 7.77 | 0.76 | 0.34 |
| 10 | Mason Greenwood | Olympique Marseille | 93.9 | 7.56 | 0.62 | 0.52 |
On the numbers alone Kane is 2nd in 2025/26, behind Erling Haaland. The index sees one league season; the vote also weighed the Champions League, the cups and the World Cup. The index reads the league season in Moneyball's history file; cup and international goals are not in it.
2026/27 so far
| # | Player | Club | Index | Rating | G+A per 90 | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raphinha | FC Barcelona | 98.9 | 8.23 | 2.05 | 1.04 |
| 2 | Lamine Yamal | FC Barcelona | 98.8 | 8.45 | 1.63 | 0.62 |
| 3 | Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid | 98.7 | 7.83 | 1.32 | 0.87 |
| 4 | Harry Kane | FC Bayern München | 98.6 | 7.87 | 1.68 | 0.96 |
| 5 | Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 97.6 | 7.60 | 1.31 | 0.78 |
| 6 | Florian Thauvin | Lens | 96.8 | 8.01 | 1.29 | 0.46 |
| 7 | Donyell Malen | Roma | 96.7 | 7.62 | 1.63 | 0.94 |
| 8 | Michael Olise | FC Bayern München | 95.8 | 8.38 | 1.47 | 0.44 |
| 9 | Lassine Sinayoko | Paris | 95.5 | 7.73 | 1.28 | 0.68 |
| 10 | Nico Paz | Como | 93.1 | 8.00 | 0.98 | 0.36 |
This season he is 4th: still in the group at the top, and the race for 2027 is already a real one.
4. This season against the last
| Per 90 minutes | This season | Last season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match rating | 7.87 | 7.87 | +0% |
| Goals per 90 | 0.90 | 0.98 | −9% |
| Assists per 90 | 0.78 | 0.19 | +314% |
| xG per 90 | 0.96 | 0.98 | −2% |
| Shots per 90 | 5.1 | 4.5 | +14% |
| Key passes per 90 | 2.6 | 1.5 | +70% |
| Dribbles per 90 | 0.8 | 1.2 | −35% |
| Duels won per 90 | 3.1 | 4.8 | −34% |
| Fouls won per 90 | 1.0 | 1.2 | −17% |
Up by 15% or more: assists per 90, key passes per 90. Down by 15% or more: dribbles per 90, duels won per 90, fouls won per 90.
This season so far: 8 goals from 8.59 xG in 804 minutes across the Bundesliga and the Champions League (4 and 4). Goals in line with the chances.
5. What his chances are worth to Bayern
A goal is worth what it does to results, so our Match Board's Dixon-Coles score matrix turns a team's expected goals into the chance of each result. Bayern create 3.01 xG a match and allow 0.92; a match played like that is a Bayern win 79% of the time, worth 2.50 points. Kane's own chances make up 0.76 of that xG per match. Replace them with an average Bundesliga forward's in the same minutes (0.52 xG per 90) and Bayern win 74% of the time, 2.39 points a match.
The difference, +0.11 points a match, is about +3.7 points over a 34-match Bundesliga season, before a single chance is finished: that is a title race's worth of points. It is also the honest way to measure a striker on a dominant team, because it asks what Bayern would lose, not how many goals a great side's No.9 happens to score.
6. Bayern around him
| Measure | FC Bayern München | Rank of 18 |
|---|---|---|
| League position (points) | 17 pts from 7 | 1st |
| Expected points (from xG) | 16.9 from 7 | 1st |
| Pi-rating (goal margin vs average) | +0.24 | 1st |
| Strength after shrinkage (xG margin per match) | +0.98 | 1st |
| Projected final points | 70 | 1st |
Bayern have 17 points from 7 matches (1st). Expected points put their football at 16.9, almost exactly what they have: the table is telling the truth. The Pi-rating, which moves after every result by how far the goal margin beat or missed expectations, ranks them 1st; their xG margin, shrunk toward the league average so a good month is not mistaken for a new level, ranks 1st, and plays out to about 70 points (1st). The numbers make them favourites to retain the title, with their Ballon d'Or winner leading the line.
7. Scouting Players Research: the report on the Ballon d'Or winner
Harry Kane, 33, plays as a centre-forward for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout scores every player against the players in his own position across 16 leagues, adjusted for the strength of the league, blends in last season's minutes and shrinks small samples toward the role's average. This is its report on Kane.
| Scouting Players Research | Harry Kane |
|---|---|
| Position (and best fit) | ST |
| Role and type | Centre-forward, poacher |
| Moneyball Score (out of 100, adjusted for league strength) | 80 |
| Last season's score | 81 |
| Rank among the centre-forwards of his league | 1st of 49 |
| Moneyball Value (estimate) | €8M to €25M (mid €16M) |
| Age curve: score in 1, 2, 3, 4 years | 76 · 72 · 68 · 64 |
| What Scouting weighs for his role | Percentile among centre-forwards |
|---|---|
| Expected goals | 100th |
| Goals | 99th |
| Shots | 99th |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 91st |
| Aerial duels won | 32nd |
| Shots on target | 89th |
| Duels won | 36th |
| Key passes | 97th |
The figures Scouting weighs most for a centre-forward, as percentiles against the centre-forwards of the 16 leagues, adjusted for league strength. Three or more in the top tenth: the profile of a complete forward, not a specialist.
A score in the 80s is the very top of the market: a handful of forwards in Europe reach it. At 33 the age curve is the one thing no method can argue with: Scouting's projection (76, 72, 68, 64 over the next four years) expects a clear decline, which is why his value is a range a club would pay for two or three years of the best, not a decade. Moneyball Value puts him at €8M to €25M.
The players most like him
| Most like him in Scouting | Club | Similarity |
|---|---|---|
| Younes Ebnoutalib | Eintracht Frankfurt | 86% |
| Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid | 86% |
| Luis Suárez | Sporting CP | 84% |
| Donyell Malen | Roma | 83% |
| Raphinha | FC Barcelona | 83% |
The forwards whose figures sit closest to his across the measures Scouting weighs for his role. The list is a scout's shortlist for the day Bayern need to replace him.
The Moneyball verdict
The Ballon d'Or is a vote, and votes reward moments. What makes this one different is that Kane's case does not need a moment. His chances were elite before he took them, and his chances alone are worth around +4 points a season to Bayern. Scouting rates him among the very best forwards on the continent today, not only last year.
The fair caution is the one Moneyball always gives: an award looks back, and at 33 the age curve points one way. But for the season that was judged, the numbers and the voters say the same thing. Harry Kane was the best player in the world in 2025/26, and the data agree.
- Expected goals (xG): the quality of every chance, so a team is judged on what it created and allowed, not only on what went in.
- Finishing and goalkeeping regression: goals against xG at both ends. A big gap either way rarely lasts a season.
- Percentiles: his figures per 90 minutes against every forward of the five leagues, for the season the vote judged and for this one.
- Moneyball Ballon d'Or Index: rating 35%, goals and assists per 90 35%, xG per 90 20%, minutes 10%, each a percentile against the field, for both seasons.
- Form check: this season against the last, per 90 minutes, with any change of 15% or more marked.
- Dixon-Coles points value: Bayern's xG through the score matrix, with his chances and with an average Bundesliga forward's in the same minutes.
- Expected points and Pi-ratings: Bayern's every match through the score matrix to give the points their football usually earns, and a home-and-away rating moved after each result by how far the margin beat what was expected.
- Bayesian shrinkage and projection: Bayern's xG margin pulled toward the league average as if they had 8 average matches more, then played out over the matches left.
- Moneyball Score (Scouting Players Research): every figure that matters for his role as a percentile against his position across 16 leagues, with the league-strength adjustment: Moneyball Scout weighs a season in Ligue 1 at 0.90 of the same season in the Premier League (Serie A 0.95, La Liga 0.96, Bundesliga 0.94).
- Moneyball Value, age curve and similarity: a market value from score, age, league and minutes; the score projected along the age curve; and the players whose figures sit closest to his.
Analysis by Moneyball Editorial. The ceremony and the season's totals are from the published Ballon d'Or results and club figures; every other number is read from the Sportmonks data at each update, and the sentences around it change with it.
Harry Kane in the Stats Centre Harry Kane in Scouting Players Research
Questions
- Who won the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- Harry Kane of Bayern Munich and England won the 70th Ballon d'Or at the London Palladium on 26 October 2026, ahead of Kylian Mbappé (second) and Lamine Yamal (third). He is the first Englishman to win it since Michael Owen in 2001.
- How many goals did Harry Kane score in 2025/26?
- By the published count, 61 for Bayern in 51 matches (36 in the Bundesliga, 14 in the Champions League, 10 in the DFB-Pokal and 1 in the Super Cup) and 73 for club and country. He was the Bundesliga's top scorer for the third season in a row. In the Sportmonks data behind Moneyball, his Bundesliga season reads 26 goals from 25.85 expected goals in 2379 minutes.
- What does Moneyball Scout rate Harry Kane?
- A Moneyball Score of 80 out of 100 as a centre-forward, 1st of 49 in his role in the Bundesliga, with a Moneyball Value of €8M to €25M. Open him in Scouting Players Research for every figure.
- What is the Moneyball Ballon d'Or Index?
- A score out of 100 for the attacking players of the five leagues and the Champions League: match rating 35%, goals and assists per 90 minutes 35%, expected goals per 90 20% and minutes played 10%, each as a percentile against the field.
- Where do the numbers come from?
- Sportmonks match, team and player data, read by the Moneyball engine and Moneyball Scout and updated with every update of the site. The ceremony details are from the published Ballon d'Or results.