★ Moneyball Original · Opinion
How Arsenal are different this season
By Moneyball Editorial · published · updated
Last season Arsenal were champions of England for the first time since 2003/04. Winning it once is hard; staying the same team after you win it is harder, because every opponent spends the summer studying you. So how are Arsenal different this season? Not in the stories told about them, but in what they do on the pitch, match after match. We ranked them against every Premier League club on every measure in the Stats Centre, read their table four ways and played the rest of the season 10,000 times.
Today they are 1st on 27 points from 10 matches. Twelve Moneyball methods, one question: is this the same Arsenal, a better one, or a team the league has caught up with?
The table, four ways
| Measure | Arsenal | Rank of 20 |
|---|---|---|
| League position (points) | 27 pts from 10 | 1st |
| Expected points (from xG) | 19.3 from 10 | 1st |
| Pi-rating (goal margin vs average) | +0.20 | 2nd |
| Strength after shrinkage (xG margin per match) | +0.47 | 2nd |
| Projected final points | 74 | 1st |
On expected points (each match's xG through the Dixon-Coles matrix) Arsenal would have 19.3, against the 27 they have: they are ahead of their chances. Their xG margin is +0.84 a match, 2nd in the league once Bayesian shrinkage has taken the noise out of a short season, and their Pi-rating, built from results alone, is 2nd.
What is different: the shape of the football
Three things stand out in the Stats Centre: they keep the ball more than almost anyone: possession 59.8%, 3rd of 20; they build short rather than long: long balls a match 17.6, 18th of 20; they press harder than nearly every side in the league: Pressure Index 66.0, 2nd of 20. Ball and pressure together is the profile of a side that wants to live in the opposition half.
| Per match, this season | Arsenal | Rank of 20 |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 59.8% | 3rd |
| Pass accuracy | 85.9% | 4th |
| Passes per match | 513 | 6th |
| Long balls per match | 17.6 | 18th |
| Pressure Index | 66.0 | 2nd |
| Tackles per match | 12.6 | 19th |
| Interceptions per match | 6.7 | 19th |
| Aerial duels won per match | 16.3 | 10th |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 5th |
| Key passes per match | 12.2 | 3rd |
| Big chances per match | 1.5 | 15th |
| xG per match | 1.73 | 5th |
| xG against per match | 0.89 | 1st |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 1st |
Read the table from top to bottom and it describes a team. The ball turns into 12.2 key passes and 1.5 big chances a match (3rd and 15th). That is 1.73 xG for and 0.89 against a match: the margin of a champion.
Without the ball
The defence is the foundation again: no club in the league allows less than Arsenal's 0.89 xG a match. They make 12.6 tackles (19th) and 6.7 interceptions (19th) a match. Few, because the ball is rarely in their half to win back.
Finishing and goalkeeping. Arsenal have scored 15 from 17.3 xG (−2.3) and conceded 5 from 8.9 xG against (+3.9 kept out). The finishing is behind the chances: there are goals still to come, and that is good news for the second half of the season. The goalkeeper has saved them goals.
Set pieces, still a weapon
Arsenal's dead balls were part of last season's title, and the numbers say they still are: 5.6, 5th of 20 corners and 16.3, 10th of 20 aerial duels won a match. A corner is worth roughly 0.03 xG on average across Europe; 5.6 of them a match, attacked as well as Arsenal attack them, adds a goal every few weeks without having to play through anyone.
Home and away
| Points per match | Arsenal |
|---|---|
| At home | 3.00 (15 from 5) |
| Away | 2.40 (12 from 5) |
The points are coming at home; the away form is where the gap to the top is made or lost.
New faces, and the ones who left
The players who joined, rated now against their last season elsewhere: on average −0.01. A champion that signs players who get better is a champion that is still building.
| Player | Came from | Rating then | Rating now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezri Konsa | Aston Villa | 6.82 | 7.05 | +0.23 |
| Bruno Guimarães | Newcastle United | 7.32 | 7.07 | −0.25 |
And the ones who left, rated at their new clubs:
| Player | Now at | Rating then | Rating now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Trossard | Beşiktaş | 6.98 | 6.65 | −0.33 |
The players behind it
Arsenal's best-rated players this season (270 minutes or more, every competition). Each name opens his Stats Centre page.
| Player | Minutes | Rating | Goals | Assists | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice | 1187 | 7.36 | 1 | 5 | 0.76 |
| Martin Ødegaard | 1042 | 7.36 | 4 | 1 | 2.76 |
| Bukayo Saka | 707 | 7.23 | 4 | 1 | 4.73 |
| Gabriel | 1260 | 7.12 | 1 | 0 | 1.76 |
| Noni Madueke | 689 | 7.12 | 2 | 1 | 1.72 |
| Bruno Guimarães | 573 | 7.07 | 2 | 0 | 1.05 |
| David Raya | 1260 | 7.07 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ezri Konsa | 1063 | 7.05 | 1 | 0 | 1.07 |
In Europe
In the Champions League league phase Arsenal have 10 points from 4 matches (3 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost), 3rd of 36, with 8 goals for and 3 against. Two competitions at this level is the other thing that is different from a year ago: the squad is being asked to do it twice a week.
10,000 seasons: can Arsenal do it again?
| In 10,000 simulated seasons | Arsenal |
|---|---|
| Win the Premier League | 61% |
| Finish in the top four | 97% |
| Most likely finishing place | 1st |
| Typical final points (median) | 74 |
| Title in 10,000 seasons | Club | Now |
|---|---|---|
| 20% | Manchester City | 3rd · 21 pts |
| 14% | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2nd · 22 pts |
| 3% | Liverpool | 4th · 18 pts |
| # | Club | Pts | xPts | Pts − xPts | Pi | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 27 | 19.3 | +7.7 | +0.20 | 74 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 22 | 17.0 | +5.0 | +0.25 | 66 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 21 | 19.1 | +1.9 | +0.11 | 69 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 18 | 15.8 | +2.2 | +0.08 | 60 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 16 | 13.2 | +2.8 | +0.04 | 54 |
| 6 | Everton | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | +0.04 | 52 |
So how are Arsenal different?
- The style. They keep the ball more than almost anyone: possession 59.8%, 3rd of 20.
- The margin. An xG margin of +0.84 a match, 2nd in the league: no longer clear of everyone, which is what the table shows too.
- The luck. The points are ahead of the chances: some of this will come back.
The Moneyball view
Champions are rarely beaten by the team they were; they are beaten by the teams that learned from them. On our numbers Arsenal win the title again in 61% of 10,000 seasons and most often finish 1st. Different, and still the favourite. This column updates itself after every round.
- Expected goals (xG): the quality of every chance, so a team is judged on what it created and allowed, not only on what went in.
- Expected points: each match's xG run through a Dixon-Coles score matrix (the Poisson model with the low-score correction the Match Board uses) to give the points a performance usually earns.
- Pi-ratings: a rating for every club at home and away, moved after each result by how far the goal margin beat or missed what the ratings expected.
- Bayesian shrinkage: a club's xG margin is pulled toward the league average as if it had 8 average matches more, so a hot month is not mistaken for a new level.
- Projection: the shrunk strength played out against an average opponent for every match left, added to the points already won.
- Monte Carlo season simulation: the rest of the league played 10,000 times, every match drawn from the Dixon-Coles matrix at each club's shrunk strength, for the chance of every finishing place.
- Finishing regression: goals scored against the xG behind them. A big gap rarely lasts a season.
- Goalkeeping regression: goals conceded against the xG faced, the other end of the same test.
- Home and away split: points per match on each side of the fixture list.
- League ranks on Sportmonks' team figures: possession, passing, pressure, chances, duels.
- Player ratings per 90, from the same Sportmonks data that runs Moneyball Scout.
- Two-competition view: the Premier League and the Champions League league phase read side by side, from the same Sportmonks data.
Analysis by Moneyball Editorial. Arsenal's 2025/26 title is the published record. Every figure about this season is read from the Moneyball Stats Centre (Sportmonks data) and updates itself with the data, and the sentences around the figures change with them.
Arsenal in the Stats Centre The Premier League table
Questions
- Who won the Premier League in 2025/26?
- Arsenal, under Mikel Arteta: their first league title since 2003/04.
- Where are Arsenal in the 2026/27 Premier League?
- 1st on 27 points from 10 matches, with 19.3 expected points from their chances. The figures update after every round.
- Can Arsenal win the Premier League again?
- In Moneyball's 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season Arsenal win the title 61% of the time and finish in the top four 97%.
- How do Arsenal play differently this season?
- they keep the ball more than almost anyone: possession <b>59.8%</b>, 3rd of 20; they build short rather than long: long balls a match <b>17.6</b>, 18th of 20; they press harder than nearly every side in the league: Pressure Index <b>66.0</b>, 2nd of 20.
- Where do the numbers come from?
- Sportmonks match, team and player data, read by the Moneyball engine and the Stats Centre, refreshed with every update of the site.