★ Moneyball Original · Opinion
How Como destroyed Lens' press and scored nine
By Moneyball Editorial · published · updated
On 4 November 2026, at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens 1-9 Como. Nine goals away from home in the Champions League, an eight-goal margin that equals the biggest win the competition has ever seen, and a hat-trick for Anastasios Douvikas. Results like that are usually written off as a freak. Moneyball's question is the opposite one: what did Como do, again and again, that made nine goals possible?
The short answer is that Lens tried to press Como, and Como had been built for exactly that. The long answer is below: the goals, the match through the Dixon-Coles matrix, both clubs' seasons ranked in the Stats Centre, and Como's league phase played 10,000 times.
The goals
| Minute | Scorer |
|---|---|
| 7′ | Douvikas |
| 32′ | Douvikas |
| 40′ | Nico Paz |
| 47′ | Da Cunha |
| 54′ | Kempf |
| 57′ | Douvikas |
| 62′ | Liberali |
| 67′ | Aguilar (Lens) |
| 69′ | Baturina |
| 90+1′ | Papaccioli |
Three before half-time, six after it. Six other Como players scored besides Douvikas, a centre-back among them, Kempf, arriving late: that is what a team that keeps beating the first line of a press looks like. Every time Lens jumped, someone was free behind them.
The match in numbers
| Como | Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 57% | 43% |
| Shots | 18 | 11 |
| Shots on target | 12 | 3 |
| Big chances | 9 | 1 |
| Passes | 646 | 470 |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 87% |
The match report's figures (xG, shots, possession) join this article with the next update of the site.
Why Lens' press broke
A press is a bet. You push players high to win the ball near the opponent's goal, and you accept that, if the ball gets past them, there is space behind. Lens are a pressing side in Ligue 1: their Pressure Index is 53.0 (8th of 18). In Ligue 1 that costs them 1.60 xG against a match (12th). Against Como the bet lost every time, because Como's whole season is built on making the first pass of a press useless.
How a press is beaten is not a secret: the goalkeeper plays as an extra outfield player, the centre-backs split wide, a midfielder drops between or beside them, and the full-backs push high so the pressing side has to choose who to leave free. Then the ball goes to the free man, and the next pass goes through the lines rather than around them. The third player, the one making the run while the ball travels, is the one who scores. Fàbregas, a midfielder who spent his career receiving under pressure, has given Como that structure.
The Stats Centre shows it across the Serie A season: possession 61.6% (1st of 20), pass accuracy 90.2% (1st), 619 passes a match (1st), and only 18.6 long balls (15th). Como do not kick their way out of pressure: they pass through it. It ends in 13.9 key passes and 2.1 big chances a match.
| Per match, domestic season | Como (Serie A) | Lens (Ligue 1) |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 61.6% (1st) | 49.7% (9th) |
| Pass accuracy | 90.2% (1st) | 84.2% (13th) |
| Pressure Index | 64.1 (3rd) | 53.0 (8th) |
| Long balls | 18.6 (15th) | 21.0 (11th) |
| Key passes | 13.9 (4th) | 10.2 (7th) |
| xG for | 1.71 (6th) | 1.59 (8th) |
| xG against | 1.33 (8th) | 1.60 (12th) |
Douvikas and Nico Paz
Douvikas' hat-trick took him to six Champions League goals this season. Across every competition he has 11 goals from 6.64 xG in 1104 minutes (rating 7.09). He is finishing above his chances, which the numbers expect to cool; the chances themselves are the part that lasts. Nico Paz, the player who turns Como's passing into chances, is rated 8.01 with 6 goals and 8 assists in 1141 minutes.
| Player | Minutes | Rating | Goals | Assists | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz | 1141 | 8.01 | 6 | 8 | 4.43 |
| Assane Diao | 535 | 7.31 | 4 | 1 | 1.17 |
| Jacobo Ramón | 1291 | 7.21 | 3 | 2 | 1.80 |
| Martin Baturina | 730 | 7.20 | 5 | 2 | 2.08 |
| Luis Milla | 967 | 7.10 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 |
| Anastasios Douvikas | 1104 | 7.09 | 11 | 2 | 6.64 |
| Lucas Da Cunha | 1026 | 7.06 | 2 | 1 | 2.74 |
| Máximo Perrone | 878 | 6.99 | 1 | 2 | 1.11 |
Como's season, four ways
| Measure | Como | Rank of 20 |
|---|---|---|
| League position (points) | 23 pts from 11 | 5th |
| Expected points (from xG) | 18.0 from 11 | 5th |
| Pi-rating (goal margin vs average) | +0.14 | 5th |
| Strength after shrinkage (xG margin per match) | +0.22 | 7th |
| Projected final points | 64 | 5th |
In Serie A Como are 5th on 23 points, with an xG margin of +0.38 a match (7th after shrinkage). Their points are a little ahead of their chances.
Lens are 11th in Ligue 1 on 13 points, an xG margin of −0.00 a match: a good side at home, which is what makes nine goals at Bollaert so loud.
The league phase, played 10,000 times
| # | Club | Pts | xPts | Pts − xPts | Pi | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 12 | – | – | +0.19 | 20 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | – | – | +0.11 | 19 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 10 | – | – | +0.08 | 17 |
| 4 | Como | 9 | – | – | +0.13 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Barcelona | 9 | – | – | +0.10 | 16 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 9 | – | – | +0.07 | 16 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 9 | – | – | +0.07 | 16 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 9 | – | – | +0.06 | 15 |
| 33 | Lens | 3 | – | – | −0.13 | 6 |
| In 10,000 simulated league phases | Como |
|---|---|
| Top eight (straight into the round of 16) | 77% |
| Top 24 (at least the play-off round) | 100% |
| Most likely place | 2nd |
A nine-goal night does more than three points: goal difference decides places in a 36-team table, and Como's is now a cushion few clubs will catch.
The Moneyball view
- It was not a freak. The chances behind the goals were real, not deflections and mistakes. The press broke because Como are built to break presses.
- Nine was the top of the range. Finishing above the chances is the one part of the night that will not happen every week.
- The lesson travels. A club promoted to Serie A in 2024 now plays through the best pressing sides in Europe: structure beats intensity when the structure is good enough.
This column updates itself with the data.
- Expected goals (xG): the quality of every chance, so a team is judged on what it created and allowed, not only on what went in.
- Expected points: each match's xG run through a Dixon-Coles score matrix (the Poisson model with the low-score correction the Match Board uses) to give the points a performance usually earns.
- Pi-ratings: a rating for every club at home and away, moved after each result by how far the goal margin beat or missed what the ratings expected.
- Bayesian shrinkage: a club's xG margin is pulled toward the league average as if it had 8 average matches more, so a hot month is not mistaken for a new level.
- Projection: the shrunk strength played out against an average opponent for every match left, added to the points already won.
- Monte Carlo season simulation: the rest of the league played 10,000 times, every match drawn from the Dixon-Coles matrix at each club's shrunk strength, for the chance of every finishing place.
- Finishing regression: goals scored against the xG behind them. A big gap rarely lasts a season.
- Goalkeeping regression: goals conceded against the xG faced, the other end of the same test.
- Home and away split: points per match on each side of the fixture list.
- League ranks on Sportmonks' team figures: possession, passing, pressure, chances, duels.
- Player ratings per 90, from the same Sportmonks data that runs Moneyball Scout.
- Match xG through the Dixon-Coles matrix: the chances of one match turned into the probability of every score, to separate a deserved result from a lucky one.
Analysis by Moneyball Editorial. The score, the scorers, the minutes, the venue and the record margin are the published record of the match (ESPN, beIN SPORTS, FotMob). Every other figure is read from the Moneyball Stats Centre (Sportmonks data) and updates itself with the data.
Como in the Stats Centre The Champions League table
Questions
- What was the score between Lens and Como?
- Lens 1-9 Como, in the Champions League league phase on 4 November 2026 at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
- Who scored for Como against Lens?
- Douvikas (7′, 32′, 57′, a hat-trick), Nico Paz (40′), Da Cunha (47′), Kempf (54′), Liberali (62′), Baturina (69′) and Papaccioli (90+1′). Aguilar scored for Lens (67′).
- Is 9-1 a Champions League record?
- An eight-goal margin equals the biggest win in Champions League history.
- Who is Como's manager?
- Cesc Fàbregas.
- Can Como reach the Champions League round of 16?
- In Moneyball's 10,000 simulations of the rest of the league phase Como finish in the top eight (straight into the round of 16) 77% of the time, and in the top 24 100%.
- Where do the numbers come from?
- Sportmonks match, team and player data, read by the Moneyball engine and the Stats Centre, refreshed with every update of the site.