★ Moneyball Original · Opinion
José Mourinho's second Real Madrid: scarier than the first? We checked it against 100 points and 121 goals
By Moneyball Editorial · published · updated
José Mourinho is back at Real Madrid, thirteen years after he left. The first time, he took 100 points and 121 goals out of a single La Liga season, numbers Spain had never seen. The second time began with a 2-1 win over Espanyol, a 4-1 win over Real Sociedad at the Bernabéu with a Kylian Mbappé hat-trick, and a 2-1 win over Inter in the Champions League that he himself called "crazy".
So a bold claim is going around: that this Mourinho side is far more frightening than the first one. It is an easy claim to put in a video title. It is also an easy claim to test, because the first era left a very exact record behind. This column tests it.
Moneyball reads a coach the way it reads a player: by what his team does on the pitch, measured the same way for every club. Twelve methods, the Stats Centre for the club and for its players, and 10,000 simulated seasons. Each idea is explained in plain words as it comes up, so you do not need to know what xG means before you start.
1. The table, read four ways
| Measure | Real Madrid | Rank of 20 |
|---|---|---|
| League position (points) | 30 pts from 12 | 2nd |
| Expected points (from xG) | 23.7 from 12 | 2nd |
| Pi-rating (goal margin vs average) | +0.33 | 2nd |
| Strength after shrinkage (xG margin per match) | +0.62 | 2nd |
| Projected final points | 76 | 2nd |
Real Madrid are 2nd in La Liga on 30 points from 12 matches (10 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost): 2.50 points a match. Points can lie over a short run, so Moneyball asks three more questions. Expected points are the points a team's chances usually earn; they rank this side 2nd. The Pi-rating moves after every result by how far the score beat or missed what was expected; it ranks them 2nd. And the projection plays the rest of the season from their chances: about 76 points, 2nd.
They have 6.3 points more than their chances deserved. That is the first warning in this column: part of the table is fortune, and fortune does not sign a contract.
17. Then and now: the first era as the yardstick
| La Liga | Matches | Points | Points a match | Goals a match | Conceded a match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010/11 | 38 | 92 | 2.42 | 2.68 | 0.87 |
| 2011/12 | 38 | 100 | 2.63 | 3.18 | 0.84 |
| 2012/13 | 38 | 85 | 2.24 | 2.71 | 1.11 |
| First era, three seasons | 114 | 277 | 2.43 | 2.86 | 0.94 |
| 2026/27 so far | 12 | 30 | 2.50 | 2.58 | 0.83 |
The first Mourinho era at Real Madrid was three La Liga seasons: 92 points, then 100, then 85. That is 2.43 points a match over 114 matches, with 2.86 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per match. The middle season, 2011/12, is the famous one: 100 points and 121 goals, both records at the time. In all competitions he won 127 of 178 matches, which is 71%.
This season the side has 2.50 points a match. Kept up for 38 matches that is 95 points. That is ahead of the first era's average and behind its record year. On points the claim is half true: better than the typical first-era season, not yet better than the best one. In goals: 2.58 scored a match against the first era's 2.86, and 0.83 conceded against 0.94. The attack is still behind the old one, which scored at a rate football had not seen. The defence is ahead too.
One honest limit. There is no xG for 2010 to 2013 in our data, so the first era can be judged on results only, and this one on results and on chances. Results include luck; chances mostly do not. That is why the next sections matter more than this one.
18. What this team is good at
| Per match, this season | Real Madrid | Rank of 20 |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbles | 13.0 | 1st |
| Pass accuracy | 89.6% | 2nd |
| Shots | 17.4 | 2nd |
| Shots on target | 7.3 | 2nd |
The strengths are clear: dribbles (1st of 20), pass accuracy (2nd of 20), shots (2nd of 20). They create 2.18 xG a match and allow 1.15. xG is the value of the chances: every shot gets a number between 0 and 1 for how often a shot like it goes in. A side that wins that count most weeks wins most seasons.
19. Where this Madrid can still be hurt
| Per match, this season | Real Madrid | Rank of 20 |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 6.7 | 20th |
| Tackles | 16.2 | 14th |
| Interceptions | 9.3 | 9th |
| Possession | 53.2% | 5th |
Every team has a list like this one, and good opponents read it. For Real Madrid it starts with aerial duels won (20th of 20), tackles (14th of 20), interceptions (9th of 20). The first reports of the season spoke of defensive lapses even in the wins. This table is where to look for them.
One number flatters them: they have conceded 3.8 goals fewer than the chances they allowed were worth. Goalkeepers do not stay that hot for a season, so expect more goals against without anything changing. Up front they have scored 4.8 more than their chances were worth, which rarely lasts a season.
20. The players carrying it
| Player | Minutes | Rating | Goals | Assists | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 1432 | 7.87 | 17 | 3 | 14.55 |
| Arda Güler | 853 | 7.84 | 4 | 7 | 4.23 |
| Jude Bellingham | 1312 | 7.63 | 5 | 4 | 4.31 |
| Yan Diomande | 891 | 7.21 | 4 | 4 | 1.09 |
| Federico Valverde | 1185 | 7.15 | 3 | 2 | 0.92 |
| Dean Huijsen | 1042 | 7.11 | 0 | 0 | 0.61 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 434 | 7.09 | 0 | 1 | 0.23 |
| Antonio Rüdiger | 576 | 7.07 | 2 | 0 | 0.64 |
The best-rated regular is Kylian Mbappé (7.87), ahead of Arda Güler (7.84). Ratings are per match, from the same data that runs Scouting Players Research, and only players with 270 minutes or more are listed.
Who joined
| Player | Came from | Rating then | Rating now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Cucurella | Chelsea | 6.85 | 6.85 | −0.00 |
| Denzel Dumfries | Inter | 6.70 | 6.70 | −0.00 |
| Ibrahima Konaté | Liverpool | 6.93 | 6.86 | −0.07 |
| Yan Diomande | RB Leipzig | 7.32 | 7.21 | −0.11 |
| Bernardo Silva | Manchester City | 6.96 | 6.80 | −0.16 |
Who left
| Player | Now at | Rating then | Rating now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fran García | Real Betis | 6.78 | 6.81 | +0.03 |
| Gonzalo García Torres | Fulham | 6.73 | 6.57 | −0.16 |
| Daniel Carvajal | Getafe | 6.75 | 6.41 | −0.34 |
21. 10,000 seasons
To see where this is heading, Moneyball plays the rest of the league season 10,000 times, every match from the chances each club really creates and allows. Real Madrid win the title in 8% of those seasons and finish in the top four in 98%. In those seasons fourth place needs about 65 points and first about 89.
The Moneyball verdict
Scarier than the first era? Not yet, but it is a fair fight. 12 matches is a small sample next to 114, and the first era's best season is one of the best any club has ever played. To match it this side would need 70 points from its remaining 26 matches.
What the chances say matters more than what the table says. On expected points they rank 2nd, with 6.3 points more than the chances deserved, so some of the fear is borrowed. They win the title in 8% of 10,000 simulated seasons.
The first Mourinho Madrid was frightening because it scored in a way nobody had seen. Whether the second one deserves the word will be decided in spring, as it was then. The numbers on this page move with every match; come back and check them.
- Expected goals (xG): the quality of every chance, so a team is judged on what it created and allowed, not only on what went in.
- Expected points: each match's xG run through a Dixon-Coles score matrix (the Poisson model with the low-score correction the Match Board uses) to give the points a performance usually earns.
- Pi-ratings: a rating for every club at home and away, moved after each result by how far the goal margin beat or missed what the ratings expected.
- Bayesian shrinkage: a club's xG margin is pulled toward the league average as if it had 8 average matches more, so a hot month is not mistaken for a new level.
- Projection: the shrunk strength played out against an average opponent for every match left, added to the points already won.
- Finishing and goalkeeping regression: goals against xG at both ends. A big gap either way rarely lasts a season.
- League ranks on Sportmonks' team figures: possession, passing, pressure, chances, duels.
- Player ratings per 90, from the same Sportmonks data that runs Moneyball Scout.
- Home and away split: points per match on each side of the fixture list.
- Monte Carlo, 10,000 seasons: every remaining match played from each club's shrunk xG strength through the Dixon-Coles score matrix.
- Strengths and weaknesses by rank: the club's figures per match ranked against every club in its league.
- Squad turnover: who left and who joined, last season's minutes against this season's.
Analysis by Moneyball Editorial. Mourinho's first-era record (La Liga points and goals from 2010 to 2013; 178 matches, 127 wins, 28 draws and 23 defeats in all competitions; La Liga 2011/12, the Copa del Rey 2010/11 and the Spanish Super Cup 2012) is the published record. The results of his first matches back are as reported by Sports Illustrated, beIN Sports and PA Media. Every other figure is read from the Sportmonks data at each update, and the sentences around it change with it.
Real Madrid in the Stats Centre Kylian Mbappé in the Stats Centre Arda Güler in the Stats Centre Jude Bellingham in the Stats Centre
Questions
- Is Mourinho's second Real Madrid better than his first?
- After 12 La Liga matches the side has 2.50 points a match. His first era (2010 to 2013) averaged 2.43, and its best season, 2011/12, took 100 points with 121 goals.
- What was Mourinho's record in his first spell at Real Madrid?
- 178 matches in all competitions: 127 wins, 28 draws and 23 defeats. He won La Liga in 2011/12 with 100 points, the Copa del Rey in 2010/11 and the Spanish Super Cup in 2012.
- Can Real Madrid win La Liga in 2026/27?
- In 10,000 simulated seasons played from every club's chances, Real Madrid win the title in 8% and finish in the top four in 98%.