★ Moneyball Original · Opinion
We got Liam Rosenior wrong: what he is building at Paris FC
By Moneyball Editorial · published · updated
In April, Chelsea sacked Liam Rosenior after 106 days, 11 wins in 23 matches, and most of English football decided it had seen enough of him. Seven months later he is back in France, and Paris FC are 3rd in Ligue 1 on 20 points from 10 matches, 3 behind Paris Saint-Germain. In the city that has belonged to PSG for half a century, the other Paris club is suddenly worth watching. Did we get Rosenior wrong?
Moneyball's answer is never the headline. A good start can be luck, a bad spell can be bad luck. So we read Paris FC the way we read every club: the chances they create and allow, expected points, Pi-ratings, Bayesian shrinkage and 10,000 simulated seasons, twelve methods in all, against the Stats Centre's figures.
The coach Chelsea let go
Rosenior's reputation was built in France. In 2024/25 he took Strasbourg to seventh in Ligue 1 and a Conference League place with the youngest squad in Europe's top five leagues, a team that pressed, kept the ball and trusted young players. That earned him Chelsea in January 2026, to succeed Enzo Maresca. At Stamford Bridge there was no time: a big squad, a demanding owner and 106 days. Eleven wins in 23 is not a disaster; at Chelsea it was not enough.
Paris FC gave him what Chelsea did not: time and a project. A contract to June 2028, a club that finished 11th under Antoine Kombouaré, and an ambition he put plainly: to become one of the biggest clubs in the country. The question is whether the football supports the ambition.
Is the start real?
| Measure | Paris | Rank of 18 |
|---|---|---|
| League position (points) | 20 pts from 10 | 3rd |
| Expected points (from xG) | 16.9 from 10 | 2nd |
| Pi-rating (goal margin vs average) | +0.12 | 3rd |
| Strength after shrinkage (xG margin per match) | +0.30 | 3rd |
| Projected final points | 58 | 2nd |
On expected points Paris FC would have 16.9, against the 20 they have: they are running ahead of their chances. Their xG margin is +0.53 a match, 3rd in Ligue 1 after Bayesian shrinkage, and their Pi-rating, built only from results, ranks them 3rd.
Finishing and goalkeeping. Paris FC have scored 17 from 15.9 xG (+1.1) and conceded 10 from 10.6 xG against (+0.6 kept out). The goals match the chances: this start is not built on hot finishing.
How Rosenior's Paris FC play
| Per match, season | Paris FC |
|---|---|
| Possession | 51.4% (7th of 18) |
| Pass accuracy | 88.0% (2nd of 18) |
| Pressure Index | 53.8 (5th of 18) |
| Shots | 13.5 (5th of 18) |
| Big chances | 1.5 (11th of 18) |
| xG for | 1.59 (8th of 18) |
| xG against | 1.06 (1st of 18) |
| Clean sheets | 40.0 (3rd of 18) |
Paris FC do not need the ball to be dangerous: a more direct side than his Strasbourg. Their Pressure Index ranks among the highest in the league: they press, and they press high.
Ligue 1, measured
| # | Club | Pts | xPts | Pts − xPts | Pi | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 23 | 20.0 | +3.0 | +0.20 | 66 |
| 2 | LOSC Lille | 21 | 12.7 | +8.3 | +0.12 | 52 |
| 3 | Paris | 20 | 16.9 | +3.1 | +0.12 | 58 |
| 4 | Olympique Marseille | 18 | 12.9 | +5.1 | +0.10 | 48 |
| 5 | Olympique Lyonnais | 17 | 16.3 | +0.7 | +0.08 | 54 |
| 6 | Nice | 17 | 12.6 | +4.4 | +0.06 | 49 |
| 7 | Monaco | 16 | 12.4 | +3.6 | +0.03 | 47 |
Paris Saint-Germain are 1st on 23 points, with an xG margin of +1.13 a match against Paris FC's +0.53. That gap is the real distance between the two Paris clubs.
10,000 seasons: where Paris FC finish
| In 10,000 simulated seasons | Paris FC |
|---|---|
| Win Ligue 1 | 13% |
| Finish in the top four (Champions League places) | 71% |
| Finish in the top six | 86% |
| Most likely finishing place | 2nd |
| Typical final points (median) | 57 |
| Relegated (bottom two) | 0% |
Paris Saint-Germain win the title in 72% of the same simulations.
The players behind it
Paris FC's best-rated players this season (270 minutes or more). Each name opens his Stats Centre page.
| Player | Minutes | Rating | Goals | Assists | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko | 871 | 7.82 | 9 | 5 | 6.10 |
| Pablo Pagis | 771 | 7.27 | 2 | 2 | 2.18 |
| Maxime Lopez | 833 | 7.27 | 2 | 2 | 0.88 |
| Ilan Kebbal | 771 | 7.21 | 1 | 1 | 1.71 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou | 888 | 7.16 | 0 | 0 | 0.46 |
| Diego Coppola | 900 | 6.82 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Kevin Trapp | 810 | 6.80 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Luca Koleosho | 537 | 6.79 | 1 | 1 | 1.79 |
Who came in
The players who joined, rated now against their last season elsewhere: on average +0.22. A coach who improves players is a coach who makes a club richer.
| Player | Came from | Rating then | Rating now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko | Auxerre | 7.20 | 7.82 | +0.62 |
| Rudy Matondo | Auxerre | 6.55 | 6.58 | +0.03 |
| Pablo Pagis | Lorient | 7.25 | 7.27 | +0.02 |
For a Premier League club watching, Moneyball Scout weighs a season in Ligue 1 at 0.90 of the same season in the Premier League: a Paris FC player rated 7.2 here is worth about a 6.5 in England, before age and minutes.
So, did we get him wrong?
- Chelsea judged results; the numbers judge chances. Eleven wins in 23 with a squad in transition is a small sample. The same coach, given a season, is now 3rd in Ligue 1 on underlying strength.
- The method travels. Strasbourg seventh with the youngest squad, Paris FC 3rd after 10 matches: the pattern is a coach who builds a team, not one who inherits it.
- The test is still ahead. Paris FC's points are ahead of their chances, so some of this start will come back.
The Moneyball view
On our numbers Paris FC most often finish 2nd and reach the Champions League places in 71% of 10,000 seasons. That is a genuine European contender, built in four months. Maybe Chelsea were right that it was not working at Stamford Bridge. The numbers say they were wrong about the coach. This column updates itself after every round.
- Expected goals (xG): the quality of every chance, so a team is judged on what it created and allowed, not only on what went in.
- Expected points: each match's xG run through a Dixon-Coles score matrix (the Poisson model with the low-score correction the Match Board uses) to give the points a performance usually earns.
- Pi-ratings: a rating for every club at home and away, moved after each result by how far the goal margin beat or missed what the ratings expected.
- Bayesian shrinkage: a club's xG margin is pulled toward the league average as if it had 8 average matches more, so a hot month is not mistaken for a new level.
- Projection: the shrunk strength played out against an average opponent for every match left, added to the points already won.
- Monte Carlo season simulation: the rest of the league played 10,000 times, every match drawn from the Dixon-Coles matrix at each club's shrunk strength, for the chance of every finishing place.
- Finishing regression: goals scored against the xG behind them. A big gap rarely lasts a season.
- Goalkeeping regression: goals conceded against the xG faced, the other end of the same test.
- Home and away split: points per match on each side of the fixture list.
- League ranks on Sportmonks' team figures: possession, passing, pressure, chances, duels.
- Player ratings per 90, from the same Sportmonks data that runs Moneyball Scout.
- League-strength adjustment: Moneyball Scout weighs a season in Ligue 1 at 0.90 of the same season in the Premier League (Serie A 0.95, La Liga 0.96, Bundesliga 0.94).
Analysis by Moneyball Editorial. Rosenior's career record (Strasbourg 2024/25, Chelsea 2026, the Paris FC contract) is the published record. Every figure about this season is read from the Moneyball Stats Centre (Sportmonks data) and updates itself with the data, and the sentences around the figures change with them.
Paris FC in the Stats Centre The Ligue 1 table
Questions
- Who is Paris FC's manager?
- Liam Rosenior, appointed in July 2026 on a contract to June 2028. He replaced Antoine Kombouaré, who had taken Paris FC to 11th.
- Why did Chelsea sack Liam Rosenior?
- Chelsea dismissed him in April 2026 after 106 days, in which his side won 11 of 23 matches. He had joined from Strasbourg in January 2026 to succeed Enzo Maresca.
- How did Liam Rosenior do at Strasbourg?
- In 2024/25 he took Strasbourg to seventh in Ligue 1 and a Conference League place with the youngest squad in Europe's top five leagues.
- Can Paris FC finish in the Champions League places?
- In Moneyball's 10,000 simulations of the rest of Ligue 1, Paris FC finish in the top four 71% of the time and in the top six 86%.
- Where do the numbers come from?
- Sportmonks match, team and player data, read by the Moneyball engine and refreshed with every update of the site. The figures in this article change with the data.