★ Moneyball Original · Opinion
Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal: who is the Premier League's real title contender?
By Moneyball Editorial · published · updated
Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal (Premier League, 1 November 2026, Anfield). Arsenal scored first, and Arsenal won at Anfield: Liverpool 4th on 18 points, Arsenal 1st on 27 (Liverpool 9 behind). A. Iraola's Liverpool against M. Arteta's Arsenal. One result at Anfield settles nothing on its own. The question it asks is bigger: which of these two is the real title contender this season?
Two clubs, one question
Liverpool won the Premier League in 2024/25, Arne Slot's first season, their twentieth league title, level with Manchester United as the most in English football. Arsenal have been waiting much longer: their last title was the Invincibles' season of 2003/04, and under Mikel Arteta they finished second three seasons running, from 2022/23 to 2024/25. One club knows how to finish a title race; the other has spent years getting close.
Moneyball began in baseball, with Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics finding value in numbers the market ignored, and in football the same idea now runs clubs like Brentford, Brighton and Como. Liverpool themselves were one of the first big clubs to build a recruitment department around data. So the Moneyball way to read this match is not to trust the headline. A result at Anfield tells us how one evening went. Who wins the league is a question about the chances each side creates and allows, week in, week out, and about how many points those chances are worth by May. That is what the rest of this piece measures, with ten methods and the Moneyball Stats Centre.
The match in numbers
- 16′ Kai Havertz (Arsenal), set up by Declan Rice · 0–1
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.71 |
| Possession | 56% | 44% |
| Shots | 17 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 0 | 3 |
| Big chances | 1 | 2 |
| Passes | 464 | 372 |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 72% |
| Corners | 7 | 4 |
| Fouls | 18 | 10 |
| Saves | 2 | 0 |
| Average player rating | 6.64 | 7.02 |
Liverpool had 56% of the ball and took 17 shots to Arsenal's 10, 0 on target against 3. On expected goals Arsenal made the better chances, 1.71 to 0.81: a deserved win at Anfield.
The Dixon-Coles verdict. Run those two xG figures through the score matrix that powers the Moneyball Match Board and a match played like this one ends in a Liverpool win 17% of the time, a draw 25% and an Arsenal win 58%. In expected points that is 0.76 for Liverpool and 1.99 for Arsenal. The result is the most likely one for a match played like this: a fair reflection of it.
Best on the pitch by Sportmonks' match ratings: Ezri Konsa, 7.7.
| Player | Rating |
|---|---|
| Virgil van Dijk | 7.1 |
| Milos Kerkez | 7.1 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 7.1 |
| Alexander Isak | 7.0 |
| Ronald Araujo | 6.8 |
| Jérémy Jacquet | 6.6 |
| Player | Rating |
|---|---|
| Ezri Konsa | 7.7 |
| Declan Rice | 7.7 |
| Gabriel | 7.3 |
| Kai Havertz | 7.3 |
| Martin Ødegaard | 7.1 |
| Noni Madueke | 7.0 |
Every player's name opens his page in the Stats Centre: his season, his match ratings and, for Moneyball Scout members, his full profile in Scouting Players Research.
Deserved, or lucky?
Liverpool scored 0 from 0.81 xG, well below their chances; Arsenal scored 1 from 1.71, close to theirs. Liverpool's goalkeeper made 2 saves, Arsenal's 0. Finishing above or below the chances is the part of football the research on Moneyball finds least repeatable over a season; the chances themselves are what repeat. That is why the season section below rates both clubs on xG, not on goals.
The season around Anfield
A title is not won in one match. It is won by a level of play held for 38 matches. Here are Liverpool and Arsenal measured nine ways, from the points they have to the points their chances deserve, and where those numbers say they will finish.
| Measure | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th · 18 pts from 10 | 1st · 27 pts from 10 |
| Expected points (xG through Dixon-Coles) | 15.8 (6th) | 19.3 (1st) |
| Points minus expected points | +2.2 | +7.7 |
| Pi-rating (goal margin vs average) | +0.08 (4th) | +0.20 (2nd) |
| Strength after Bayesian shrinkage | +0.21 (6th) | +0.47 (2nd) |
| Goals minus xG (finishing) | −4.0 | −2.3 |
| Goals kept out minus xG faced (goalkeeping) | +4.3 | +3.9 |
| Home points per match | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Away points per match | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| Projected final points | 60 (4th) | 74 (1st) |
| Title in 10,000 simulated seasons | 3% | 59% |
| Top four | 42% | 97% |
On expected points, the measure of how well each side has really played, the gap between the clubs is 3.5 in Arsenal's favour, against 9 on the real table. Liverpool are +2.2 points against their expected points: they have taken more than their chances deserve, and the regression method expects some of that to come back. Arsenal are +7.7: running ahead of their chances.
The top of the Premier League
| # | Club | Pts | xPts | Pts − xPts | Pi | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 27 | 19.3 | +7.7 | +0.20 | 74 |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 22 | 17.0 | +5.0 | +0.25 | 66 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 21 | 19.1 | +1.9 | +0.11 | 69 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 18 | 15.8 | +2.2 | +0.08 | 60 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 16 | 13.2 | +2.8 | +0.04 | 54 |
| 6 | Everton | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | +0.04 | 52 |
Points against expected points: a positive gap usually closes. The projection plays each club's shrunk strength out over the matches it has left.
Who wins the league? 10,000 seasons
We played the rest of the Premier League 10,000 times. Each club plays every match it has left at its own strength (its xG margin per match, shrunk toward the league average while the sample is small), each match a draw from the Dixon-Coles matrix. Nothing else goes in: no reputation, no budget, no narrative.
| In 10,000 simulated seasons | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Win the Premier League | 3% | 59% |
| Finish in the top four | 42% | 97% |
| Typical final points (median) | 60 | 74 |
| Finish above the other | 7% | 93% |
The answer, on today's numbers: On today's numbers Liverpool are not a title side on these numbers (3% of the simulated seasons) and Arsenal a genuine title favourite (59%). Arsenal are the stronger contender of the two.
Two ways to play, measured
| Per match, season | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 52.8% (7th) | 59.8% (3rd) |
| Pass accuracy | 82.7% (10th) | 85.9% (4th) |
| Pressure Index | 58.0 (6th) | 66.0 (2nd) |
| Shots | 16.0 (4th) | 13.8 (10th) |
| Big chances | 1.0 (18th) | 1.5 (15th) |
| xG for | 1.80 (3rd) | 1.73 (5th) |
| xG against | 1.43 (9th) | 0.89 (1st) |
| Clean sheets | 40.0 (3rd) | 70.0 (1st) |
The ranks are against the whole Premier League. Possession says who had the ball; expected goals say what each side did with it, and that is what Moneyball rates teams on.
The players who decide it
Titles are won by squads, and these are each club's best-rated players this season across the Premier League and Europe (270 minutes or more). Each name opens his Stats Centre page.
| Player | Minutes | Rating | Goals | Assists | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 754 | 7.44 | 2 | 1 | 1.67 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas | 330 | 7.39 | 0 | 3 | 0.10 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 1012 | 7.23 | 4 | 0 | 1.78 |
| Florian Wirtz | 1045 | 7.15 | 2 | 4 | 3.64 |
| Alexander Isak | 887 | 7.13 | 8 | 1 | 6.47 |
| Cody Gakpo | 718 | 7.12 | 1 | 5 | 1.70 |
| Player | Minutes | Rating | Goals | Assists | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice | 1187 | 7.36 | 1 | 5 | 0.76 |
| Martin Ødegaard | 1042 | 7.36 | 4 | 1 | 2.76 |
| Bukayo Saka | 707 | 7.23 | 4 | 1 | 4.73 |
| Gabriel | 1260 | 7.12 | 1 | 0 | 1.76 |
| Noni Madueke | 689 | 7.12 | 2 | 1 | 1.72 |
| Bruno Guimarães | 573 | 7.07 | 2 | 0 | 1.05 |
What each side needs
- Chances, not only results. Liverpool's xG margin is +0.37 a match, Arsenal's +0.84. A Premier League champion usually creates well over a goal more than it allows every match; that is the number to watch, not the points after one weekend.
- Beat the rest, not only each other. Three points at Anfield count the same as three points anywhere. Title races are lost at home to mid-table sides.
- Keep it going without luck. If the points are running ahead of the chances, the regression method expects a correction. The way to avoid it is to make more chances, not to hope the finishing holds.
The Moneyball view
On today's numbers Liverpool are not a title side on these numbers (3% of the simulated seasons) and Arsenal a genuine title favourite (59%). Arsenal are the stronger contender of the two. On the projection Liverpool finish on about 60 points and Arsenal on about 74. The numbers will show soon enough which of them is built for May. Check back after every round: this article updates itself with the data.
- Expected goals (xG): the quality of every chance, so a team is judged on what it created and allowed, not only on what went in.
- Dixon-Coles score matrix: the match's two xG figures turned into the chance of each result and into expected points, the same model the Match Board uses.
- Expected points: each match's xG run through a Dixon-Coles score matrix (the Poisson model with the low-score correction the Match Board uses) to give the points a performance usually earns.
- Pi-ratings: a rating for every club at home and away, moved after each result by how far the goal margin beat or missed what the ratings expected.
- Bayesian shrinkage: a club's xG margin is pulled toward the league average as if it had 8 average matches more, so a hot month is not mistaken for a new level.
- Projection: the shrunk strength played out against an average opponent for every match left, added to the points already won.
- Monte Carlo season simulation: the rest of the Premier League played 10,000 times, each match from the Dixon-Coles matrix at each club's shrunk strength, for the title and top-four chances.
- Finishing and goalkeeping regression: goals against xG at both ends. A big gap either way rarely lasts a season.
- Home and away split: points per match on each side of the fixture list.
- League ranks on Sportmonks' team figures: possession, passing, pressure, chances, duels.
- Player ratings per 90, from the same Sportmonks data that runs Moneyball Scout.
Analysis by Moneyball Editorial. Background on both clubs' titles is the published record. Every figure about this season and this match is read from the Moneyball Stats Centre (Sportmonks data) and updates itself with the data, and the sentences around the figures change with them.
Every minute of Liverpool v Arsenal in the Match Centre Liverpool in the Stats Centre Arsenal in the Stats Centre The Premier League table
Questions
- What was the score of Liverpool vs Arsenal on 1 November 2026?
- Liverpool 0-1 Arsenal in the Premier League at Anfield. Goals: Kai Havertz 16′.
- When did Arsenal last win the Premier League?
- In 2003/04, the Invincibles season, unbeaten in all 38 league matches. Under Mikel Arteta they finished second three seasons in a row, from 2022/23 to 2024/25.
- How many league titles have Liverpool won?
- Twenty. The twentieth came in 2024/25, Arne Slot's first season, and drew them level with Manchester United as England's most successful league club.
- Who deserved to win Liverpool vs Arsenal on expected goals?
- Expected goals were 0.81 for Liverpool and 1.71 for Arsenal. Through the Dixon-Coles matrix, a match with those chances ends in a Liverpool win 17%, a draw 25% and an Arsenal win 58% of the time.
- Who will win the Premier League this season?
- In 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, from each club's strength after Bayesian shrinkage, Liverpool win the title 3% of the time and Arsenal 59%.
- Who was the best player in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
- By Sportmonks' match ratings, Ezri Konsa with 7.7.
- Where do the numbers come from?
- Sportmonks match, team and player data, read by the Moneyball engine and refreshed with every update of the site. The figures in this article change with the data.