★ Moneyball Original · Player analysis
Vinícius Júnior: is the drop real? The numbers behind the "fake Vini" talk
By Moneyball Editorial · published
"Fake Vini", "a clone of the real one": the talk around Vinícius Júnior has been loud. The fairest test is the simplest: his season so far against his last one, every figure counted per 90 minutes. Verdict: The drop is real, but it is not the whole story.
This season against last, per 90 minutes
| Measure | This season | Last season | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match rating | 6.86 | 7.33 | -6% |
| Goals per 90 | 0.13 | 0.38 | -65% |
| Assists per 90 | 0.40 | 0.16 | +152% |
| xG per 90 | 0.39 | 0.44 | -12% |
| Shots per 90 | 3.3 | 3.2 | +4% |
| Key passes per 90 | 1.7 | 2.2 | -22% |
| Dribbles per 90 | 2.1 | 2.8 | -23% |
| Duels won per 90 | 6.4 | 6.3 | +2% |
| Fouls won per 90 | 3.2 | 2.6 | +25% |
This season: 672 minutes in 9 matches. Last season: 2825 minutes in 36 matches.
What has dropped
Goals per 90 (-65%), key passes per 90 (-22%), dribbles per 90 (-23%).
What has not
Assists per 90 (+152%), fouls won per 90 (+25%). He has scored 1.9 goals fewer than his chances were worth (xG): the chances are still arriving, the finishing is not. That usually turns back.
The Moneyball view
Some of the drop is real. But a player who still gets into the same positions, still wins fouls and still creates chances is a player in a bad patch, not a different player. The table updates itself after every match.
Vinícius Júnior in the Stats Centre
Questions
- Has Vinícius Júnior really dropped off?
- The drop is real, but it is not the whole story. Of 9 measures, 3 are down by 15% or more against last season and 2 are up by 15% or more, per 90 minutes.
- Why per 90 minutes?
- So a season of a few weeks can be compared fairly with a full one: every figure is counted for the same 90 minutes of football.
- Where do the figures come from?
- Sportmonks match data for La Liga and the Champions League, this season and last, read by the Moneyball Scout engine.