Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh Prediction and Stats
Saudi Pro League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Abha welcome Al Shabab Riyadh to Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Mahalah in Saudi Pro League action on Thursday 5 November 2026.
Abha have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate. Al Shabab Riyadh have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Al Shabab Riyadh are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 24% and Abha at 20%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.75 goals: 53%.
Abha: form and key numbers
In style Abha are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.96 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 9.4 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.63.
Al Shabab Riyadh: form and key numbers
In style Al Shabab Riyadh press high, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.84 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh: season averages side by side
| Abha | Per match | Al Shabab Riyadh |
|---|---|---|
| 0.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.84 |
| 1.41 | xG conceded | 1.49 |
| 0.64 | Goals | 1.82 |
| 9.4 | Shots | 14.6 |
| 3.2 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 38.7 | Pressure share % | 60.0 |
| 15.9 | Tackles | 14.9 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 11 and 11 measured matches.
Players to watch
Abha
- Mohammed Al-Dawsari RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 18 · Dribbler, Crosser (top 38% of his position)
- Safwan Al-Johani LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 15 · Crosser, Dribbler (top 31% of his position)
Al Shabab Riyadh
- Mory Diaw GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 21 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 34% of his position)
- Josh Brownhill CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 19 · Secure passer, Creator (top 32% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ricardo Mathias
Ricardo Mathias, 20 · Al Shabab · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 21
Ricardo Mathias, 20, plays as a centre-forward for Al Shabab in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 21
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 18
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 xG/shot | 97% |
| Shots on target | 57% | 85% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.62 / 90 | 51% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.71 / 90 | 30% |
| Expected goals | 0.69 / 90 | 26% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Ricardo Mathias is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ricardo Mathias's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh prediction
Al Shabab Riyadh should have more of the ball, with Abha likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.04 for Abha and 1.62 for Al Shabab Riyadh - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 53%. Al Shabab Riyadh have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Abha 1-2 Al Shabab Riyadh
Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh: what the numbers say
- 1. Al Shabab Riyadh win, the likeliest result 56% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.66 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh: questions and answers
When is Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh?
Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh is on Thursday 5 November 2026, in Saudi Pro League.
Where is Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh played?
At Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Mahalah, Abha's home ground.
Who will win Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh?
Al Shabab Riyadh are the favourites: Abha 20%, draw 24%, Al Shabab Riyadh 56%. Our prediction is Abha 1-2 Al Shabab Riyadh.
Who is the player to watch in Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh?
Ricardo Mathias of Al Shabab: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 21 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Abha vs Al Shabab Riyadh?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.