Ajax vs Atalanta Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 2
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam · updated 2026-10-17
Ajax welcome Atalanta to Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Ajax have played 7 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 71% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate. Atalanta have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Ajax are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 23% and Atalanta at 31%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ajax 1.89, Atalanta 1.52.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Ajax: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 3.15 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 22.4 a match, 9.4 on target.
- Possession: 64.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.01.
Atalanta: form and key numbers
In style Atalanta are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.70 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.1).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 0.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Ajax vs Atalanta: season averages side by side
| Ajax | Per match this season | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 3 |
| 3.3 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 0.3 |
| 3.15 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.70 |
| 22.4 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 9.4 | On target | 5.3 |
| 64.9 | Possession % | 59.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 67% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 8.6 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 0.3 |
| 7.01 | Average rating | 6.97 |
Players to watch
Atalanta
- Marco Carnesecchi GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 9% of his position)
- Raoul Bellanova RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Creator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović, 26 · Atalanta · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 60
Nikola Krstović, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Atalanta in Serie A. Strongest for his role in goals and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 60
- SS · Second striker Competent, 48
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots | 4.18 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots on target | 54% | 77% |
| Expected goals | 0.51 / 90 | 63% |
| Key passes | 1.29 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, High shot volume.
- What Nikola Krstović is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Nikola Krstović's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Ajax vs Atalanta prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.89 for Ajax and 1.52 for Atalanta - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 67%. Ajax have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Ajax 2-1 Atalanta
Ajax vs Atalanta betting tips
- Tip 1: Ajax win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.41 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 1.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Ajax vs Atalanta: questions and answers
When is Ajax vs Atalanta?
Ajax vs Atalanta is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2.
Where is Ajax vs Atalanta played?
At Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, Ajax's home ground.
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
Ajax are the favourites: Ajax 46%, draw 23%, Atalanta 31%. Our prediction is Ajax 2-1 Atalanta.
Who is the player to watch in Ajax vs Atalanta?
Nikola Krstović of Atalanta: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Atalanta?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.