Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moscow Prediction and Stats
Premier League · Saturday 7 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Akhmat Grozny welcome Rodina Moscow to Akhmat Arena in Groznyi in Premier League action on Saturday 7 November 2026.
Akhmat Grozny have played 14 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 21% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 7 matches, with a 100% win rate. Rodina Moscow have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the pre-match consensus, Akhmat Grozny are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 27% and Rodina Moscow at 25%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.75 goals: 49%.
Akhmat Grozny: form and key numbers
In style Akhmat Grozny play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.14 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moscow: season averages side by side
| Akhmat Grozny | Per match | Rodina Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| 1.14 | Expected goals (xG) | – |
| 1.29 | xG conceded | – |
| 1.14 | Goals | – |
| 12.6 | Shots | – |
| 3.7 | Shots on target | – |
| 0.6 | Big chances missed | – |
| 49.9 | Pressure share % | – |
| 12.4 | Tackles | – |
| 12.8 | Fouls | – |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | – |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 14 and – measured matches.
Players to watch
Akhmat Grozny
- Kalidou Sidibé DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 26 · Hard to dribble past, Press-resistant (top 2% of his position)
- Arsen Adamov RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 25 · Hard to dribble past, Crosser (top 1% of his position)
Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moscow prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.31 for Akhmat Grozny and 1.21 for Rodina Moscow - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Akhmat Grozny have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Akhmat Grozny 2-1 Rodina Moscow
Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moscow: what the numbers say
- 1. Akhmat Grozny unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 54% by the model, 2.52 goals expected
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moscow: questions and answers
When is Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moscow?
Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moscow is on Saturday 7 November 2026, in the Premier League.
Where is Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moscow played?
At Akhmat Arena, Groznyi, Akhmat Grozny's home ground.
Who will win Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moscow?
Akhmat Grozny are the favourites: Akhmat Grozny 49%, draw 27%, Rodina Moscow 25%. Our prediction is Akhmat Grozny 2-1 Rodina Moscow.
How many goals will there be in Akhmat Grozny vs Rodina Moscow?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.