Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah Prediction and Stats
Saudi Pro League · Sunday 8 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Al Ahli Jeddah welcome Al Taawoun Buraidah to Alinma Stadium in Jeddah in Saudi Pro League action on Sunday 8 November 2026.
Al Ahli Jeddah have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 64% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 57% win rate. Al Taawoun Buraidah have played 12 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Al Ahli Jeddah are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 22% and Al Taawoun Buraidah at 17%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3 goals: 50%.
Al Ahli Jeddah: form and key numbers
In style Al Ahli Jeddah press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.24 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.4).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 52.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Al Taawoun Buraidah: form and key numbers
In style Al Taawoun Buraidah play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.64 conceded (goals minus xG: -8.6).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 42% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah: season averages side by side
| Al Ahli Jeddah | Per match | Al Taawoun Buraidah |
|---|---|---|
| 2.24 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.21 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.64 |
| 2.55 | Goals | 0.50 |
| 14.9 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 6.5 | Shots on target | 3.1 |
| 3.0 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 58.6 | Pressure share % | 48.5 |
| 16.3 | Tackles | 14.8 |
| 14.2 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 11 and 12 measured matches.
Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Al Ahli Jeddah have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Al Ahli Jeddah 10, Al Taawoun Buraidah 4 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Al Taawoun Buraidah 1-2 Al Ahli Jeddah (May 11th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Al Ahli Jeddah won 4, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2026 | Al Taawoun Buraidah | 1 – 2 | Al Ahli Jeddah |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Al Ahli Jeddah | 2 – 1 | Al Taawoun Buraidah |
| 7 May 2025 | Al Ahli Jeddah | 2 – 0 | Al Taawoun Buraidah |
| 7 Dec 2024 | Al Taawoun Buraidah | 2 – 4 | Al Ahli Jeddah |
Players to watch
Al Ahli Jeddah
- Eduard Spertsyan AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 18 · Big-chance creator, Secure passer (top 19% of his position)
- Saad Balobaid LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 15 · Creator, Secure passer (top 22% of his position)
Al Taawoun Buraidah
- Aschraf El Mahdioui DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 15 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 13% of his position)
- Rakan Al-Tulayhi AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 15 · Secure passer, Big-chance creator (top 48% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ivan Toney
Ivan Toney, 30 · Al Ahli · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 32
Ivan Toney, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Al Ahli in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 32
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 27
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.29 xG/shot | 100% |
| Shots on target | 61% | 96% |
| Expected goals | 1.21 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 1.28 / 90 | 86% |
| Shots | 4.19 / 90 | 13% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Ivan Toney is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ivan Toney's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah prediction
Al Ahli Jeddah should have more of the ball; Al Ahli Jeddah work the ball wide and cross; Al Taawoun Buraidah go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.53 for Al Ahli Jeddah and 0.96 for Al Taawoun Buraidah - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 57%. Al Ahli Jeddah have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Al Ahli Jeddah 2-1 Al Taawoun Buraidah
Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah: what the numbers say
- 1. Al Ahli Jeddah win, the likeliest result 61% on the pre-match consensus
- 2. 3 or more goals 68% by the model, 3.49 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah: questions and answers
When is Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah?
Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah is on Sunday 8 November 2026, in Saudi Pro League.
Where is Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah played?
At Alinma Stadium, Jeddah, Al Ahli Jeddah's home ground.
Who will win Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah?
Al Ahli Jeddah are the favourites: Al Ahli Jeddah 61%, draw 22%, Al Taawoun Buraidah 17%. Our prediction is Al Ahli Jeddah 2-1 Al Taawoun Buraidah.
Who is the player to watch in Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah?
Ivan Toney of Al Ahli: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 32 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawoun Buraidah?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.