Alverca vs Casa Pia Prediction and Stats
Liga Portugal · Sunday 8 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Alverca welcome Casa Pia to Complexo Desportivo do FC Alverca in Alverca do Ribatejo in Liga Portugal action on Sunday 8 November 2026.
Alverca have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 27% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 33% win rate. Casa Pia have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 18% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 6 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Alverca are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 27% and Casa Pia at 23%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.5 goals: 49%.
Alverca: form and key numbers
In style Alverca are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 41.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Casa Pia: form and key numbers
In style Casa Pia are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.90 a match created, 1.71 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.9).
- Shots: 10.1 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 27% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: season averages side by side
| Alverca | Per match | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.90 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 1.71 |
| 1.27 | Goals | 0.55 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 10.1 |
| 3.9 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 1.0 |
| 41.3 | Pressure share % | 42.2 |
| 18.6 | Tackles | 17.4 |
| 14.3 | Fouls | 12.2 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 11 and 11 measured matches.
Players to watch
Alverca
- Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 48 · Draws fouls, Crosser (top 1% of his position)
- Matheus Mendes GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 42 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 29% of his position)
Casa Pia
- Patrick Sequeira GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 57 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 3% of his position)
- Ivan Mandić GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 45 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: David Sousa
David Sousa, 25 · Casa Pia · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 52
David Sousa, 25, plays as a centre-back for Casa Pia in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.28 / 90 | 89% |
| Duels won | 7.51 / 90 | 87% |
| Interceptions | 2.00 / 90 | 75% |
| Clearances | 7.51 / 90 | 72% |
| Tackles | 2.09 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner.
- What David Sousa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open David Sousa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction
Casa Pia should have more of the ball; Alverca like to take players on; Casa Pia are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.72 for Alverca and 0.85 for Casa Pia - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 48%. Alverca have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Alverca 2-1 Casa Pia
Alverca vs Casa Pia: what the numbers say
- 1. Alverca unbeaten (win or draw) 77% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 53% by the model, 2.57 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 9.4 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: questions and answers
When is Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca vs Casa Pia is on Sunday 8 November 2026, in Liga Portugal.
Where is Alverca vs Casa Pia played?
At Complexo Desportivo do FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo, Alverca's home ground.
Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca are the favourites: Alverca 50%, draw 27%, Casa Pia 23%. Our prediction is Alverca 2-1 Casa Pia.
Who is the player to watch in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
David Sousa of Casa Pia: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 52 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.