Andorra vs Malta Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League D · Thursday 24 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Andorra welcome Malta in UEFA Nations League D action on Thursday 24 September 2026.
Andorra have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Malta have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Andorra 28%, the draw 32%, Malta 40%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (14.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Andorra 0 at 2.16, Malta at 1.52. The main goals line is 1.75: over 1.78, under 1.88, which gives over 51%.
Andorra vs Malta: season averages side by side
| Andorra | Per match | Malta |
|---|---|---|
| 0.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.95 |
| 1.95 | xG conceded | 2.55 |
| 0.38 | Goals | 0.64 |
| 8.2 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 11.9 | Tackles | 17.6 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 26 and 20 measured matches.
Andorra vs Malta prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Andorra and 1.23 for Malta - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Andorra 1-1 Malta
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Andorra vs Malta betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Andorra vs Malta: questions and answers
When is Andorra vs Malta?
Andorra vs Malta is on Thursday 24 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League D.
Who will win Andorra vs Malta?
It is close: Andorra 28%, draw 32%, Malta 40%. Our prediction is Andorra 1-1 Malta.
How many goals will there be in Andorra vs Malta?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.