Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 3
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan · updated 2026-10-17
Ararat-Armenia welcome AZ Alkmaar to Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in Yerevan in Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Ararat-Armenia have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. AZ Alkmaar have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AZ Alkmaar are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 27% and Ararat-Armenia at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Ararat-Armenia 1.14, AZ Alkmaar 1.55.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Ararat-Armenia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.96 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 2.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.56.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.8).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: season averages side by side
| Ararat-Armenia | Per match this season | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 2 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.89 |
| 9.8 | Shots | 13.0 |
| 2.5 | On target | 4.5 |
| 47.3 | Possession % | 57.0 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.56 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.14 for Ararat-Armenia and 1.55 for AZ Alkmaar - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 54%. AZ Alkmaar have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Ararat-Armenia 0-1 AZ Alkmaar
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar betting tips
- Tip 1: AZ Alkmaar win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.69 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: questions and answers
When is Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar played?
At Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium, Yerevan, Ararat-Armenia's home ground.
Who will win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar are the favourites: Ararat-Armenia 27%, draw 27%, AZ Alkmaar 46%. Our prediction is Ararat-Armenia 0-1 AZ Alkmaar.
How many goals will there be in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.