AS Monaco vs Lille Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 8
Ligue 1 · Sunday 25 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
AS Monaco welcome Lille to Stade Louis II. in Monaco in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 25 October 2026.
AS Monaco have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Lille have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, AS Monaco are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 27% and Lille at 29%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is AS Monaco -0.25 at 1.86, Lille at 2.04. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.96, under 1.93, which gives over 50%.
AS Monaco: form and key numbers
In style AS Monaco take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 50.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 57% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
AS Monaco vs Lille: season averages side by side
| AS Monaco | Per match | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.31 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 1.67 | Goals | 1.43 |
| 11.2 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 1.7 | Big chances missed | 1.7 |
| 46.4 | Pressure share % | 49.2 |
| 22.5 | Tackles | 15.9 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 11.7 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 7 measured matches.
Players to watch
AS Monaco
- Vanderson RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 76 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
- Lamine Camara CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Lille
- Alexsandro CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Hard to dribble past, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
- Dilane Bakwa RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 58 · Crosser, Creator (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ethan Mbappé
Ethan Mbappé, 19 · LOSC Lille · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65
Ethan Mbappé, 19, plays as a winger for LOSC Lille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and fouls won. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 65
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 61
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 2.56 / 90 | 82% |
| Fouls won | 2.30 / 90 | 76% |
| Expected goals | 0.29 / 90 | 72% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 72% |
| Dispossessed | 0.77 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler.
- What Ethan Mbappé is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ethan Mbappé's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AS Monaco vs Lille prediction
Lille should have more of the ball; AS Monaco like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.34 for AS Monaco and 1.11 for Lille - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 50%. AS Monaco have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AS Monaco 1-0 Lille
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
AS Monaco vs Lille betting tips
- Tip 1: AS Monaco win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.46 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Angers vs Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs AS Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
- Paris FC vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lyon vs Nice Sunday 18 October 2026
- Brest vs Nice Saturday 24 October 2026
AS Monaco vs Lille: questions and answers
When is AS Monaco vs Lille?
AS Monaco vs Lille is on Sunday 25 October 2026, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 8.
Where is AS Monaco vs Lille played?
At Stade Louis II., Monaco, AS Monaco's home ground.
Who will win AS Monaco vs Lille?
AS Monaco are the favourites: AS Monaco 44%, draw 27%, Lille 29%. Our prediction is AS Monaco 1-0 Lille.
Who is the player to watch in AS Monaco vs Lille?
Ethan Mbappé of LOSC Lille: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AS Monaco vs Lille?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.