AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid: Result, Report and Stats
UEFA Champions League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: AS Roma 3 – 4 Real Madrid
- Before kick-off the prices, margin removed, gave Real Madrid win 45%. The result went the way the market leaned.
- Asian handicap AS Roma +0.5: lost for AS Roma backers.
- Goals line 3.25: 7 goals, so the over won and the under lost.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in the Match Centre.
AS Roma welcome Real Madrid to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in UEFA Champions League action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
AS Roma have played 6 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Real Madrid have played 8 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Real Madrid are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 24% and AS Roma at 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is AS Roma +0.5 at 1.86, Real Madrid at 2.02. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.76, under 2.11, which gives over 54%.
AS Roma: form and key numbers
In style AS Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.26 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 18.7 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 53.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.10.
Real Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Real Madrid press high, take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.24 a match created, 1.15 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 17.9 a match, 7.1 on target.
- Possession: 51.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
AS Roma vs Real Madrid: season averages side by side
| AS Roma | Per match | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 2.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.24 |
| 1.12 | xG conceded | 1.15 |
| 2.33 | Goals | 2.38 |
| 18.7 | Shots | 17.9 |
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 7.1 |
| 2.5 | Big chances missed | 2.5 |
| 60.5 | Pressure share % | 69.5 |
| 20.0 | Tackles | 15.4 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 8.4 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 8 measured matches.
AS Roma vs Real Madrid: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- AS Roma have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: AS Roma 10, Real Madrid 22 - 3.2 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid (October 14th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings AS Roma won 1, drew 0 and lost 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | AS Roma | 3 – 4 | Real Madrid |
| 27 Nov 2018 | AS Roma | 0 – 2 | Real Madrid |
| 19 Sep 2018 | Real Madrid | 3 – 0 | AS Roma |
| 8 Mar 2016 | Real Madrid | 2 – 0 | AS Roma |
| 17 Feb 2016 | AS Roma | 0 – 2 | Real Madrid |
| 5 Mar 2008 | Real Madrid | 1 – 2 | AS Roma |
Players to watch
AS Roma
- Donyell Malen CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 74 · Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher (top 2% of his position)
- Matías Soulé RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 64 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
Real Madrid
- Vinicius Junior LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 77 · Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
- Jude Bellingham AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 75 · Dribbler, Draws fouls (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Arda Güler
Arda Güler, 21 · Real Madrid · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 86
Arda Güler, 21, plays as an attacking midfielder for Real Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 86
- LW · Winger Competent, 76
- RW · Winger Competent, 76
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 5.92 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.85 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.69 / 90 | 98% |
| Through balls | 0.42 / 90 | 98% |
| Fouls won | 2.54 / 90 | 93% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Arda Güler is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Arda Güler's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction
AS Roma should have more of the ball; AS Roma work the ball wide and cross; Real Madrid like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.82 for AS Roma and 1.37 for Real Madrid - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 63%. Real Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: AS Roma 1-2 Real Madrid
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
AS Roma vs Real Madrid betting tips
- Tip 1: Real Madrid win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.20 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open AS Roma vs Real Madrid in the Match Centre Follow it live
AS Roma vs Real Madrid: questions and answers
When is AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
AS Roma vs Real Madrid is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.
Where is AS Roma vs Real Madrid played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, AS Roma's home ground.
Who will win AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid are the favourites: AS Roma 31%, draw 24%, Real Madrid 45%. Our prediction is AS Roma 1-2 Real Madrid.
Who is the player to watch in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
Arda Güler of Real Madrid: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 86 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.