Aston Villa 6–0 Fenerbahce: Result, Report and Stats
UEFA Champions League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Aston Villa 6 – 0 Fenerbahce
- Before kick-off the prices, margin removed, gave Aston Villa win 52%. The result went the way the market leaned.
- Asian handicap Aston Villa -0.75: won for Aston Villa backers.
- Goals line 2.75: 6 goals, so the over won and the under lost.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in the Match Centre.
Aston Villa welcome Fenerbahce to Villa Park in Birmingham in UEFA Champions League action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Aston Villa have played 6 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Fenerbahce have played 8 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Aston Villa are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 25% and Fenerbahce at 23%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Aston Villa -0.75 at 2.02, Fenerbahce at 1.86. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.83, under 2.04, which gives over 53%.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.07 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Fenerbahce: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created (goals minus xG: -4.9).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 55.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce: season averages side by side
| Aston Villa | Per match | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | – |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.13 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 13.9 |
| 3.2 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 2.1 |
| 36.4 | Pressure share % | – |
| 16.2 | Tackles | 19.8 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 8 measured matches.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Aston Villa have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Aston Villa 7, Fenerbahce 0 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Aston Villa 6-0 Fenerbahce (October 14th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Aston Villa won 2, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | Aston Villa | 6 – 0 | Fenerbahce |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Fenerbahce | 0 – 1 | Aston Villa |
Players to watch
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 57 · Box defender, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Tyrone Mings CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 51 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley, 32 · Aston Villa · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 60
Ross Barkley, 32, plays as a central midfielder for Aston Villa in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in key passes and successful dribbles. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.00 / 90 | 85% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.14 / 90 | 82% |
| Passes | 60.57 / 90 | 78% |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 73% |
| Expected goals | 0.13 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Dribbler.
- What Ross Barkley is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ross Barkley's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.21 for Aston Villa and 1.52 for Fenerbahce - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. Aston Villa have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Fenerbahce
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce betting tips
- Tip 1: Aston Villa win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.73 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce in the Match Centre Follow it live
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce: questions and answers
When is Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.
Where is Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce played?
At Villa Park, Birmingham, Aston Villa's home ground.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Aston Villa are the favourites: Aston Villa 52%, draw 25%, Fenerbahce 23%. Our prediction is Aston Villa 2-1 Fenerbahce.
Who is the player to watch in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Ross Barkley of Aston Villa: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.