Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 9
Premier League · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham · updated 2026-10-17
Aston Villa welcome Fulham to Villa Park in Birmingham in Premier League Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Aston Villa have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Fulham have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Aston Villa 36%, the draw 27%, Fulham 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.39, Fulham 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.07 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Fulham: form and key numbers
In style Fulham keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.62 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.7).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Aston Villa vs Fulham: season averages side by side
| Aston Villa | Per match this season | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.62 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 3.2 | On target | 4.5 |
| 47.0 | Possession % | 53.8 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.65 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Aston Villa
- Ross Barkley CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 60 · Chance creator, Dribbler (top 15% of his position)
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 57 · Box defender, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Fulham
- Joshua David Steven King AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 52 · Press-resistant, Big-chance creator (top 10% of his position)
- Alex Iwobi DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 50 · Disciplined, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Shea Charles
Shea Charles, 22 · Fulham · DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 61
Shea Charles, 22, plays as a defensive midfielder for Fulham in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in blocked shots and fouls committed. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average defensive midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 61
- CM · Central midfielder Competent, 49
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Blocked shots | 1.92 / 90 | 98% |
| Fouls committed | 0.24 / 90 | 95% |
| Interceptions | 2.16 / 90 | 87% |
| Passes | 58.08 / 90 | 75% |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Blocks shots, Disciplined, Reads the game.
- What Shea Charles is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Shea Charles's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Aston Villa vs Fulham prediction
Fulham should have more of the ball, with Aston Villa likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.39 for Aston Villa and 1.41 for Fulham - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 57%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham
Aston Villa vs Fulham betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.80 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Friday 23 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Saturday 24 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Fulham Saturday 24 October 2026
- Arsenal vs Everton Saturday 24 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 24 October 2026
- Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth Sunday 25 October 2026
- Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 25 October 2026
- Hull City vs Brentford Sunday 25 October 2026
Aston Villa vs Fulham: questions and answers
When is Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Aston Villa vs Fulham is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 9.
Where is Aston Villa vs Fulham played?
At Villa Park, Birmingham, Aston Villa's home ground.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fulham?
It is close: Aston Villa 36%, draw 27%, Fulham 37%. Our prediction is Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham.
Who is the player to watch in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Shea Charles of Fulham: a anchor with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.