Aston Villa vs Viking Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 3
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham · updated 2026-10-17
Aston Villa welcome Viking to Villa Park in Birmingham in Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Aston Villa have played 6 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Viking have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Aston Villa 40%, the draw 24%, Viking 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.66, Viking 1.58.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.07 a match created, 1.72 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 47.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Viking: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created (goals minus xG: +4.6).
- Shots: 9.0 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 37.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Aston Villa vs Viking: season averages side by side
| Aston Villa | Per match this season | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| 1.72 | xG conceded | – |
| 11.3 | Shots | 9.0 |
| 3.2 | On target | 4.8 |
| 47.0 | Possession % | 37.5 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 2.8 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.65 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 57 · Box defender, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Tyrone Mings CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 51 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley, 32 · Aston Villa · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 60
Ross Barkley, 32, plays as a central midfielder for Aston Villa in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in key passes and successful dribbles. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.00 / 90 | 85% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.14 / 90 | 82% |
| Passes | 60.57 / 90 | 78% |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 73% |
| Expected goals | 0.13 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★½ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Dribbler.
- What Ross Barkley is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ross Barkley's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Aston Villa vs Viking prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.66 for Aston Villa and 1.58 for Viking - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Viking
Aston Villa vs Viking betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.24 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Aston Villa vs Viking: questions and answers
When is Aston Villa vs Viking?
Aston Villa vs Viking is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Aston Villa vs Viking played?
At Villa Park, Birmingham, Aston Villa's home ground.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Viking?
It is close: Aston Villa 40%, draw 24%, Viking 36%. Our prediction is Aston Villa 1-1 Viking.
Who is the player to watch in Aston Villa vs Viking?
Ross Barkley of Aston Villa: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Viking?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.