Atalanta 3-1 Venezia: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Atalanta won it

The opening goal came in the 4th minute: Franck Kessié for Atalanta, set up by Nikola Krstović. Nikola Krstović made it 2-0 to Atalanta in the 6th minute, set up by Eljif Elmas. Nikola Krstović made it 3-0 to Atalanta in the 30th minute. Antoine Hainaut made it 3-1 to Venezia in the 37th minute, set up by Richie Sagrado.

It was 3-1 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.

Nikola Krstović scored twice.

Eljif Elmas of Atalanta was sent off in the 89th minute. The referee, P. Tremolada, showed 2 yellow cards: 0 to Atalanta and 2 to Venezia.

Atalanta: M. Sarri, 4-2-3-1 · Venezia: G. Stroppa, 3-5-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made an Atalanta win the most likely outcome at 48%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 3-1.

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.0 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 58%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 60%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.16 for Atalanta and 1.97 for Venezia.

Atalanta had 11 shots on target, Venezia 4.

Venezia's goalkeeper made 7 saves.

Venezia had 64% of the ball, but Atalanta took the points.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Atalanta came into it with 6 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.11 expected goals for and 1.87 against, and had won 50% of their matches.

Venezia came into it with 7 Serie A matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.3 a match, with 1.58 expected goals for and 2.12 against, and had won 14% of their matches.

Atalanta vs Venezia: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Nikola Krstović (Atalanta), rated 8.8 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals, 1 assist.

Atalanta

• Nikola Krstović 8.8 2 goals, 1 assist
• Franck Kessié 7.3 1 goal
• Thomas Kristensen 7.3
• Éderson 7.1
• Raoul Bellanova 7.0

Venezia

• Antoine Hainaut 7.8 1 goal
• Filip Stanković 7.7
• Toma Bašić 7.4
• Richie Sagrado 7.4 1 assist
• Simon Sohm 7.2

The lowest-rated starter was Matías Moreno at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Atalanta: AC Milan vs Atalanta Sunday 18 October 2026 · Serie A
• Venezia: Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Atalanta vs Venezia

What was the score in Atalanta vs Venezia?

Atalanta 3-1 Venezia (half-time 3-1), Serie A, Monday 12 October 2026.

Who scored in Atalanta vs Venezia?

Franck Kessié 4', Nikola Krstović 6', Nikola Krstović 30', Antoine Hainaut 37'.

Did Moneyball predict Atalanta vs Venezia correctly?

The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made an Atalanta win the most likely outcome at 48%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 3-1.

Who was man of the match in Atalanta vs Venezia?

Nikola Krstović, rated 8.8 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Atalanta vs Venezia?

P. Tremolada.