Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama Prediction and Stats
Brasileirao · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Athletico Paranaense welcome Vasco da Gama in Brasileirao action on Wednesday 4 November 2026.
Athletico Paranaense have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Vasco da Gama have played 33 matches in Brasileirao this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 16 matches, with a 27% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, there is little to separate them: Athletico Paranaense 40%, the draw 29%, Vasco da Gama 31%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.75 goals: 48%.
Vasco da Gama: form and key numbers
In style Vasco da Gama keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.70 a match created, 1.03 conceded (goals minus xG: -13.2).
- Shots: 17.5 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 54.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 12% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama: season averages side by side
| Athletico Paranaense | Per match | Vasco da Gama |
|---|---|---|
| – | Expected goals (xG) | 1.70 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.03 |
| – | Goals | 1.30 |
| – | Shots | 17.5 |
| – | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| – | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| – | Pressure share % | 61.7 |
| – | Tackles | 16.0 |
| – | Fouls | 13.1 |
| – | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Vasco da Gama
- Cuiabano LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 69 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
- Claudio Spinelli CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 65 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.41 for Athletico Paranaense and 1.35 for Vasco da Gama - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 57%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Athletico Paranaense 1-1 Vasco da Gama
Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.76 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama: questions and answers
When is Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?
Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama is on Wednesday 4 November 2026, in Brasileirao.
Who will win Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?
It is close: Athletico Paranaense 40%, draw 29%, Vasco da Gama 31%. Our prediction is Athletico Paranaense 1-1 Vasco da Gama.
How many goals will there be in Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.