Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 10
La Liga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid · updated 2026-10-17
Atlético de Madrid welcome Deportivo A Coruña to Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid in La Liga Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Atlético de Madrid have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 78% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 43% win rate. Deportivo A Coruña have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Atlético de Madrid are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 25% and Deportivo A Coruña at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atlético de Madrid 1.72, Deportivo A Coruña 0.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Atlético de Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Atlético de Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.07 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.5).
- Shots: 17.7 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 59.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Deportivo A Coruña: form and key numbers
In style Deportivo A Coruña play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.14 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 89% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña: season averages side by side
| Atlético de Madrid | Per match this season | Deportivo A Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 |
| 1.07 | xG conceded | 1.14 |
| 17.7 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 6.4 | On target | 4.3 |
| 59.9 | Possession % | 48.0 |
| 44% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 44% | Both teams scored % | 89% |
| 6.3 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.98 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Atlético de Madrid
- Morten Hjulmand DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 75 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 3% of his position)
- Koke CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 72 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Deportivo A Coruña
- Yeremay Hernández LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 67 · Dribbler, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Lorenzo Amatucci DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Álex Baena
Álex Baena, 25 · Atlético de Madrid · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 69
Álex Baena, 25, plays as a winger for Atlético de Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 69
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 65
- SS · Second striker Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.59 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.38 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 3.42 / 90 | 93% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.20 / 90 | 82% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, High shot volume.
⚠ 5 goals from only 1.3 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Álex Baena is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Álex Baena's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña prediction
Atlético de Madrid should have more of the ball, with Deportivo A Coruña likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Atlético de Madrid like to take players on; Deportivo A Coruña go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.72 for Atlético de Madrid and 0.97 for Deportivo A Coruña - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 52%. Atlético de Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atlético de Madrid 1-0 Deportivo A Coruña
Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña betting tips
- Tip 1: Atlético de Madrid win or draw (double chance) 79% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.68 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña: questions and answers
When is Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña?
Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 10.
Where is Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña played?
At Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Atlético de Madrid's home ground.
Who will win Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña?
Atlético de Madrid are the favourites: Atlético de Madrid 54%, draw 25%, Deportivo A Coruña 21%. Our prediction is Atlético de Madrid 1-0 Deportivo A Coruña.
Who is the player to watch in Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña?
Álex Baena of Atlético de Madrid: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.