Atlético de Madrid 2-0 Manchester United: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Champions League Matchday 2 · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid · referee G. Nyberg · full time
Full time: Atlético de Madrid 2-0 Manchester United
Atlético de Madrid won 2-0 at home to Manchester United in Champions League Matchday 2 on Tuesday 13 October 2026. The goals: Pablo Barrios 1', Ademola Lookman 79'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Atlético de Madrid won it
Atlético de Madrid struck first through Pablo Barrios in the 1st minute, set up by Álex Baena. Ademola Lookman made it 2-0 to Atlético de Madrid in the 79th minute, set up by Jonathan David.
It was 1-0 at half-time.
Leny Jean-Luc Yoro of Manchester United was sent off in the 74th minute. The referee, G. Nyberg, showed 3 yellow cards: 2 to Atlético de Madrid and 1 to Manchester United.
Atlético de Madrid: D. Simeone, 4-4-2 · Manchester United: M. Carrick, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
An Atlético de Madrid win was the estimate's call at 52%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 1-1 was the likeliest, 2-0 the real one.
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.2 expected, 2 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 61%; with 2 goals the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 61%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
Atlético de Madrid had 5 shots on target, Manchester United 4.
Atlético de Madrid had 58% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Atlético de Madrid came into it with 2 Champions League matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 0.96 expected goals for and – against, and had won 50% of their matches.
Manchester United came into it with 2 Champions League matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 2.13 expected goals for and – against, and had won 50% of their matches.
Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United: the match in numbers
| Atlético de Madrid | Match statistics | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 58% | Ball possession | 42% |
| 11 | Total shots | 9 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 2 | Big chances | 4 |
| 651 | Total passes | 463 |
| 89% | Pass accuracy | 86% |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 5 | Tackles | 21 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Pablo Barrios (Atlético de Madrid), rated 7.7 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Atlético de Madrid
- Pablo Barrios 7.7 1 goal
- Jan Oblak 7.6
- Alejandro Grimaldo 7.6
- Álex Baena 7.3 1 assist
- Marcos Llorente 7.2
Manchester United
- Bruno Fernandes 7.3
- Andrey Santos 7.0
- Lisandro Martínez 7.0
- Youri Tielemans 6.9
- Mason Mount 6.9
The lowest-rated starter was Marcus Rashford at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Atlético de Madrid: VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid Tuesday 20 October 2026 · Champions League
- Manchester United: Leeds United vs Manchester United Sunday 18 October 2026 · Premier League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United
What was the score in Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United?
Atlético de Madrid 2-0 Manchester United (half-time 1-0), Champions League, Tuesday 13 October 2026.
Who scored in Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United?
Pablo Barrios 1', Ademola Lookman 79'.
Did Moneyball predict Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United correctly?
An Atlético de Madrid win was the estimate's call at 52%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 1-1 was the likeliest, 2-0 the real one.
Who was man of the match in Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United?
Pablo Barrios, rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United?
G. Nyberg.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.