Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna Prediction and Betting Tips
La Liga · Sunday 25 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Atletico Madrid welcome RC Deportivo A Coruna to Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid in La Liga action on Sunday 25 October 2026.
Atletico Madrid have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 78% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 43% win rate. RC Deportivo A Coruna have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Atletico Madrid are clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 16% and RC Deportivo A Coruna at 10%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Atletico Madrid -1.75 at 1.90, RC Deportivo A Coruna at 2.00. The main goals line is 3: over 1.83, under 2.05, which gives over 53%.
Atletico Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Atletico Madrid keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.5).
- Shots: 17.7 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 59.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
RC Deportivo A Coruna: form and key numbers
In style RC Deportivo A Coruna play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.14 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 89% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna: season averages side by side
| Atletico Madrid | Per match | RC Deportivo A Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 |
| 1.01 | xG conceded | 1.14 |
| 2.11 | Goals | 1.44 |
| 17.7 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 1.7 | Big chances missed | 0.9 |
| 71.8 | Pressure share % | 44.9 |
| 16.6 | Tackles | 16.8 |
| 12.2 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 9 and 9 measured matches.
Players to watch
Atletico Madrid
- Morten Hjulmand DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 74 · Reads the game, Ball circulator (top 3% of his position)
- Koke CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 72 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
RC Deportivo A Coruna
- Yeremay Hernández LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 66 · Dribbler, Gets into scoring positions (top 4% of his position)
- Lorenzo Amatucci DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Álex Baena
Álex Baena, 25 · Atlético de Madrid · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 68
Álex Baena, 25, plays as a winger for Atlético de Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 68
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 64
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.59 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.38 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 3.42 / 90 | 92% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 82% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.20 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, High shot volume.
⚠ 5 goals from only 1.3 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Álex Baena is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Álex Baena's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna prediction
Atletico Madrid should have more of the ball, with RC Deportivo A Coruna likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Atletico Madrid like to take players on; RC Deportivo A Coruna go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.73 for Atletico Madrid and 0.95 for RC Deportivo A Coruna - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 51%. Atletico Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-0 RC Deportivo A Coruna
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna betting tips
- Tip 1: Atletico Madrid to win 74% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.68 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna: questions and answers
When is Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna?
Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna is on Sunday 25 October 2026, in La Liga.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna played?
At Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Atletico Madrid's home ground.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna?
Atletico Madrid are the favourites: Atletico Madrid 74%, draw 16%, RC Deportivo A Coruna 10%. Our prediction is Atletico Madrid 1-0 RC Deportivo A Coruna.
Who is the player to watch in Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna?
Álex Baena of Atlético de Madrid: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Madrid vs RC Deportivo A Coruna?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
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