Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Augsburg welcome Union Berlin to WWK Arena in Augsburg in Bundesliga Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 24 October 2026.
Augsburg have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Union Berlin have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 5.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Augsburg are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 26% and Union Berlin at 27%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Augsburg -0.5 at 1.93, Union Berlin at 1.98. The main goals line is 3: over 1.94, under 1.94, which gives over 50%.
Augsburg: form and key numbers
In style Augsburg are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.12 a match created, 3.15 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 41.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Union Berlin: form and key numbers
In style Union Berlin are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.87 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 43.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin: season averages side by side
| Augsburg | Per match | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 3.15 | xG conceded | 1.87 |
| 2.67 | Goals | 0.83 |
| 16.2 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 1.0 |
| 33.8 | Pressure share % | 39.3 |
| 17.3 | Tackles | 17.2 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 11.7 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Augsburg have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Augsburg 4, Union Berlin 7 - 2.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Union Berlin 4-0 Augsburg (May 16th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Augsburg won 1, drew 1 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Union Berlin | 4 – 0 | Augsburg |
| 15 Jan 2026 | Augsburg | 1 – 1 | Union Berlin |
| 17 May 2025 | Augsburg | 1 – 2 | Union Berlin |
| 15 Jan 2025 | Union Berlin | 0 – 2 | Augsburg |
Players to watch
Augsburg
- Finn Dahmen GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 73 · Shot-stopper, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Marius Wolf RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 2% of his position)
Union Berlin
- Leopold Querfeld CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 69 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Tom Alexander Rothe LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch, 32 · FC Augsburg · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 79
Michael Gregoritsch, 32, plays as a centre-forward for FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 79
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 83% | 100% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 xG/shot | 94% |
| Goals | 1.04 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.77 / 90 | 88% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.65 / 90 | 85% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots, Clinical finisher.
- What Michael Gregoritsch is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Gregoritsch's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Augsburg vs Union Berlin prediction
Union Berlin should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 4.3 goals - 2.77 for Augsburg and 1.53 for Union Berlin - with over 2.5 goals at 80% and both teams scoring at 74%. Augsburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Augsburg 2-1 Union Berlin
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Augsburg vs Union Berlin betting tips
- Tip 1: Augsburg win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 80% by the model, 4.31 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Augsburg vs Union Berlin in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Augsburg vs Union Berlin: questions and answers
When is Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Augsburg vs Union Berlin is on Saturday 24 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 7.
Where is Augsburg vs Union Berlin played?
At WWK Arena, Augsburg, Augsburg's home ground.
Who will win Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Augsburg are the favourites: Augsburg 47%, draw 26%, Union Berlin 27%. Our prediction is Augsburg 2-1 Union Berlin.
Who is the player to watch in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Michael Gregoritsch of FC Augsburg: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 79 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 80%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.