Austria vs Israel Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League B · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Austria welcome Israel in UEFA Nations League B action on Friday 25 September 2026.
Austria have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Israel have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Austria are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 20% and Israel at 15%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Austria -1.25 at 1.80, Israel at 1.89. The main goals line is 3: over 1.76, under 1.90, which gives over 52%.
Austria vs Israel: season averages side by side
| Austria | Per match | Israel |
|---|---|---|
| 1.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.11 |
| 1.15 | xG conceded | 1.94 |
| 2.08 | Goals | 2.11 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 14.1 |
| 16.6 | Tackles | 13.5 |
| 12.9 | Fouls | 9.3 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 34 and 20 measured matches.
Austria vs Israel prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Austria and 1.23 for Israel - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Austria have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Austria 1-0 Israel
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Austria vs Israel betting tips
- Tip 1: Austria to win 65% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Austria vs Israel: questions and answers
When is Austria vs Israel?
Austria vs Israel is on Friday 25 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League B.
Who will win Austria vs Israel?
Austria are the favourites: Austria 65%, draw 20%, Israel 15%. Our prediction is Austria 1-0 Israel.
How many goals will there be in Austria vs Israel?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.