Auxerre vs Le Mans Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Monday 26 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Auxerre welcome Le Mans to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Auxerre in Ligue 1 action on Monday 26 October 2026.
Auxerre have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Le Mans have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Auxerre are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 27% and Le Mans at 29%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Auxerre -0.25 at 1.89, Le Mans at 2.01. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.98, under 1.90, which gives over 49%.
Auxerre: form and key numbers
In style Auxerre are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 12.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 44.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Le Mans: form and key numbers
In style Le Mans are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 2.04 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 10.6 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: season averages side by side
| Auxerre | Per match | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.57 |
| 1.96 | xG conceded | 2.04 |
| 1.33 | Goals | 1.43 |
| 12.0 | Shots | 10.6 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.1 |
| 1.5 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 39.9 | Pressure share % | 31.1 |
| 15.2 | Tackles | 14.9 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 14.9 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 7 measured matches.
Players to watch
Auxerre
- Romain Faivre AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Chance creator (top 9% of his position)
- Kévin Danois DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 48 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 4% of his position)
Le Mans
- Louis Mafouta CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 57 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
- Rayan Bamba RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Crosser, Hard to dribble past (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lucas Calodat
Lucas Calodat, 24 · Le Mans · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64
Lucas Calodat, 24, plays as a wing-back for Le Mans in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and dribbled past. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 64
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 62
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.36 / 90 | 87% |
| Dribbled past | 0.23 / 90 | 86% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.64 / 90 | 83% |
| Interceptions | 1.64 / 90 | 83% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.41 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Creator, Hard to dribble past, Dribbler.
- What Lucas Calodat is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lucas Calodat's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction
Le Mans should have more of the ball; Auxerre like to take players on; Le Mans go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.91 for Auxerre and 1.83 for Le Mans - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 72%. Auxerre have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Auxerre 2-1 Le Mans
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Auxerre vs Le Mans betting tips
- Tip 1: Auxerre win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 72% by the model, 3.74 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 72% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
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- Paris FC vs Rennes Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lyon vs Nice Sunday 18 October 2026
- Brest vs Nice Saturday 24 October 2026
Auxerre vs Le Mans: questions and answers
When is Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Auxerre vs Le Mans is on Monday 26 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Auxerre vs Le Mans played?
At Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre, Auxerre's home ground.
Who will win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Auxerre are the favourites: Auxerre 44%, draw 27%, Le Mans 29%. Our prediction is Auxerre 2-1 Le Mans.
Who is the player to watch in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Lucas Calodat of Le Mans: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
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