Auxerre vs Paris Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 10
Ligue 1 · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre · updated 2026-10-24
Auxerre welcome Paris to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Auxerre in Ligue 1 Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC.
Auxerre have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Paris have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Paris are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 23% and Auxerre at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Auxerre 1.32, Paris 1.94.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Auxerre: form and key numbers
In style Auxerre are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.92 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.7).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Paris: form and key numbers
In style Paris create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.81 a match created, 1.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.7).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Auxerre vs Paris: season averages side by side
| Auxerre | Per match this season | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.81 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | 1.15 |
| 12.1 | Shots | 14.6 |
| 5.1 | On target | 5.0 |
| 44.9 | Possession % | 51.7 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 86% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.94 |
Players to watch
Auxerre
- Romain Faivre AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 66 · Dribbler, Chance creator (top 9% of his position)
- Kévin Danois DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 49 · Duel winner, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
Paris
- Pierre Lees-Melou DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 11% of his position)
- Ilan Kebbal RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Chance creator, Draws fouls (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lassine Sinayoko
Lassine Sinayoko, 26 · Paris · CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 76
Lassine Sinayoko, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Paris in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 76
- SS · Second striker Competent, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.21 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.77 / 90 | 89% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 86% |
| Goals | 0.88 / 90 | 82% |
| Shots | 3.82 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions, Takes high-quality shots.
- What Lassine Sinayoko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lassine Sinayoko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Auxerre vs Paris prediction
Paris should have more of the ball, with Auxerre likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Auxerre like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.32 for Auxerre and 1.94 for Paris - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 63%. Paris have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Auxerre 1-2 Paris
Auxerre vs Paris betting tips
- Tip 1: Paris win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.26 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Paris Saturday 24 October 2026
- Toulouse vs Troyes Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rennes vs Strasbourg Sunday 25 October 2026
- Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre Sunday 25 October 2026
- Auxerre vs Le Mans Sunday 25 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Lorient Sunday 25 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Olympique Lyonnais Sunday 25 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Friday 30 October 2026
Auxerre vs Paris: questions and answers
When is Auxerre vs Paris?
Auxerre vs Paris is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 16:15 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 10.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris played?
At Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre, Auxerre's home ground.
Who will win Auxerre vs Paris?
Paris are the favourites: Auxerre 25%, draw 23%, Paris 51%. Our prediction is Auxerre 1-2 Paris.
Who is the player to watch in Auxerre vs Paris?
Lassine Sinayoko of Paris: a pressing forward with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Auxerre vs Paris?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.