AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar · updated 2026-10-22
AZ Alkmaar welcome Juventus to AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
AZ Alkmaar have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 100% win rate. Juventus have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 43% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: AZ Alkmaar 35%, the draw 30%, Juventus 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.16, Juventus 1.15.
- Over 2.5 goals: 41% · both teams to score: 48%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.8).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Juventus: form and key numbers
In style Juventus keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 0.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.9).
- Shots: 17.0 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 58.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: season averages side by side
| AZ Alkmaar | Per match this season | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.89 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.59 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 17.0 |
| 4.5 | On target | 5.9 |
| 57.0 | Possession % | 58.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 8.1 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Players to watch
Juventus
- Douglas Luiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
- Zeki Çelik RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 66 · Creator, Hard to dribble past (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Francisco Conceição
Francisco Conceição, 23 · Juventus · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 64
Francisco Conceição, 23, plays as a winger for Juventus in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and shots. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 64
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 60
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.66 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 2.91 / 90 | 76% |
| Dispossessed | 0.83 / 90 | 74% |
| Big chances created | 0.42 / 90 | 67% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.22 / 90 | 64% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Crosser.
- What Francisco Conceição is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Francisco Conceição's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.16 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.15 for Juventus - with over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams scoring at 48%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Juventus
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 35%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 2.31 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 13.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: questions and answers
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus played?
At AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, AZ Alkmaar's home ground.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
It is close: AZ Alkmaar 35%, draw 30%, Juventus 35%. Our prediction is AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Juventus.
Who is the player to watch in AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
Francisco Conceição of Juventus: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.