Baltika 0–1 Dynamo Makhachkala: Result, Report and Stats
Premier League · Monday 9 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Baltika 0 – 1 Dynamo Makhachkala
- Before kick-off the pre-match consensus gave Dynamo Makhachkala win 18%. The consensus had leaned to a Baltika win (53%); the result went against it.
- 1 goal in the match.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.
Baltika welcome Dynamo Makhachkala to Kaliningrad Stadium in Kaliningrad in Premier League action on Monday 9 November 2026.
Baltika have played 14 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 8 matches, with a 50% win rate. Dynamo Makhachkala have played 14 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 8 matches, with a 60% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Baltika are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 28% and Dynamo Makhachkala at 18%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2 goals: 51%.
Baltika: form and key numbers
In style Baltika are happy without the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.47 a match created, 0.83 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 42.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Dynamo Makhachkala: form and key numbers
In style Dynamo Makhachkala are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 44.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala: season averages side by side
| Baltika | Per match | Dynamo Makhachkala |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.25 |
| 0.83 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 1.21 | Goals | 1.21 |
| 13.1 | Shots | 10.9 |
| 4.4 | Shots on target | 3.5 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 1.0 |
| 59.3 | Pressure share % | 40.9 |
| 17.5 | Tackles | 13.8 |
| 16.6 | Fouls | 11.9 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 14 and 14 measured matches.
Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Baltika have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 3 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Baltika 4, Dynamo Makhachkala 3 - 2.3 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Baltika 0-1 Dynamo Makhachkala (November 8th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 3 meetings Baltika won 1, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Baltika | 0 – 1 | Dynamo Makhachkala |
| 5 Apr 2026 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 2 – 2 | Baltika |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Baltika | 2 – 0 | Dynamo Makhachkala |
Players to watch
Baltika
- Fahd Moufi RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 35 · Hard to dribble past, Gets into scoring positions (top 25% of his position)
- E. Ćivić LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 25 · Crosser, Duel winner (top 31% of his position)
Dynamo Makhachkala
- Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 20 · Big-chance creator, Through-ball threat (top 45% of his position)
- Makhmud Makhamadzhonov LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 18 · Reads the game, Dribbler (top 19% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Brayan Gil
Brayan Gil, 25 · Baltika Kaliningrad · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 32
Brayan Gil, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russian Premier League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 32
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 28
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 96% |
| Shots on target | 55% | 87% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.99 / 90 | 72% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.60 / 90 | 40% |
| Expected goals | 0.60 / 90 | 37% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Brayan Gil is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Brayan Gil's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala prediction
Dynamo Makhachkala should have more of the ball; Baltika are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Dynamo Makhachkala go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.75 for Baltika and 0.87 for Dynamo Makhachkala - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 49%. Baltika have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Baltika 2-1 Dynamo Makhachkala
Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala: what the numbers say
- 1. Baltika unbeaten (win or draw) 82% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.62 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.2 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 8.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala: questions and answers
When is Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala is on Monday 9 November 2026, in the Premier League.
Where is Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala played?
At Kaliningrad Stadium, Kaliningrad, Baltika's home ground.
Who will win Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Baltika are the favourites: Baltika 53%, draw 28%, Dynamo Makhachkala 18%. Our prediction is Baltika 2-1 Dynamo Makhachkala.
Who is the player to watch in Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Brayan Gil of Baltika Kaliningrad: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 32 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Baltika vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.