Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3
UEFA Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Bayern Munich welcome Arsenal to Allianz Arena in Munich in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Wednesday 21 October 2026.
Bayern Munich have played 6 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 3.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 6.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. Arsenal have played 6 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 83% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayern Munich are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 27% and Arsenal at 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bayern Munich -0.25 at 1.90, Arsenal at 2.00. The main goals line is 3: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
Bayern Munich: form and key numbers
In style Bayern Munich keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 3.21 a match created, 0.84 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 24.3 a match, 10.3 on target.
- Possession: 69.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.7 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.22.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.89 a match created, 0.88 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.3).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 59.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: season averages side by side
| Bayern Munich | Per match | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 3.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.89 |
| 0.84 | xG conceded | 0.88 |
| 3.67 | Goals | 1.67 |
| 24.3 | Shots | 13.0 |
| 10.3 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 3.8 | Big chances missed | 1.7 |
| 89.3 | Pressure share % | 64.8 |
| 12.8 | Tackles | 11.7 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Bayern Munich have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Bayern Munich 22, Arsenal 13 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Arsenal 3-1 Bayern Munich (November 26th 2025).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Bayern Munich won 4, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | Arsenal | 3 – 1 | Bayern Munich |
| 17 Apr 2024 | Bayern Munich | 1 – 0 | Arsenal |
| 9 Apr 2024 | Arsenal | 2 – 2 | Bayern Munich |
| 7 Mar 2017 | Arsenal | 1 – 5 | Bayern Munich |
| 15 Feb 2017 | Bayern Munich | 5 – 1 | Arsenal |
| 4 Nov 2015 | Bayern Munich | 5 – 1 | Arsenal |
Players to watch
Bayern Munich
- Ismael Saibari AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 75 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
- Luis Díaz LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70 · High shot volume, Chance creator (top 7% of his position)
Arsenal
- Declan Rice CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 71 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Ben White RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 90
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 90
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 87
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 86
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.91 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots | 5.03 / 90 | 98% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.86 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.56 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 97% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, High shot volume, Crosser.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction
Bayern Munich should have more of the ball; Bayern Munich like to take players on; Arsenal are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.23 for Bayern Munich and 1.13 for Arsenal - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 61%. Bayern Munich have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 2-1 Arsenal
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayern Munich win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.36 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Bayern Munich vs Arsenal in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: questions and answers
When is Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal is on Wednesday 21 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Bayern Munich vs Arsenal played?
At Allianz Arena, Munich, Bayern Munich's home ground.
Who will win Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?
Bayern Munich are the favourites: Bayern Munich 42%, draw 27%, Arsenal 31%. Our prediction is Bayern Munich 2-1 Arsenal.
Who is the player to watch in Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 90 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.