Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 6
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-17
Bayern Munich welcome RB Leipzig to Allianz Arena in Munich in Bundesliga Gameweek 6 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.
Bayern Munich have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.2 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 6.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. RB Leipzig have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayern Munich are clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 14% and RB Leipzig at 11%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bayern Munich -2.25 at 2.05, RB Leipzig at 1.85. The main goals line is 4.5: over 2.02, under 1.86, which gives over 48%.
Bayern Munich: form and key numbers
In style Bayern Munich keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 3.07 a match created, 0.83 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.7).
- Shots: 23.2 a match, 9.0 on target.
- Possession: 70.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.20.
RB Leipzig: form and key numbers
In style RB Leipzig keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.44 a match created, 1.16 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: season averages side by side
| Bayern Munich | Per match | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 3.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.44 |
| 0.83 | xG conceded | 1.16 |
| 3.20 | Goals | 3.00 |
| 23.2 | Shots | 19.0 |
| 9.0 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 3.6 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 90.3 | Pressure share % | 59.0 |
| 12.8 | Tackles | 14.0 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Bayern Munich have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Bayern Munich 19, RB Leipzig 5 - 6.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished RB Leipzig 1-5 Bayern Munich (January 17th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Bayern Munich won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | RB Leipzig | 1 – 5 | Bayern Munich |
| 22 Aug 2025 | Bayern Munich | 6 – 0 | RB Leipzig |
| 3 May 2025 | RB Leipzig | 3 – 3 | Bayern Munich |
| 20 Dec 2024 | Bayern Munich | 5 – 1 | RB Leipzig |
Players to watch
Bayern Munich
- Luis Díaz LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 63 · Gets into scoring positions, Dribbler (top 16% of his position)
- Harry Kane CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 62 · High shot volume, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
RB Leipzig
- Antonio Nusa LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 74 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Christopher Nkunku CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 70 · Clinical finisher, Chance creator (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 90
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 90
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 86
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 80
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.06 / 90 | 98% |
| Shots | 5.04 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 3.66 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.44 / 90 | 96% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.44 / 90 | 94% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, High shot volume, Chance creator.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig prediction
Bayern Munich should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.17 for Bayern Munich and 1.46 for RB Leipzig - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 69%. Bayern Munich have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 2-1 RB Leipzig
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayern Munich to win 75% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 70% by the model, 3.63 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 15.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: questions and answers
When is Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 6.
Where is Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig played?
At Allianz Arena, Munich, Bayern Munich's home ground.
Who will win Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Bayern Munich are the favourites: Bayern Munich 75%, draw 14%, RB Leipzig 11%. Our prediction is Bayern Munich 2-1 RB Leipzig.
Who is the player to watch in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 90 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.