Benfica vs Lech Poznań Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisboa · updated 2026-10-22
Benfica welcome Lech Poznań to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Benfica have played 8 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 3.1 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 4.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate. Lech Poznań have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Benfica are clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 16% and Lech Poznań at 12%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Benfica 2.83, Lech Poznań 1.13.
- Over 2.5 goals: 76% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Benfica: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.97 a match created (goals minus xG: +9.2).
- Shots: 17.8 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 60.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.9 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.10.
Lech Poznań: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.96 a match created (goals minus xG: +9.3).
- Shots: 16.7 a match, 6.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 17% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: season averages side by side
| Benfica | Per match this season | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 6 |
| 3.1 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.96 |
| 17.8 | Shots | 16.7 |
| 6.5 | On target | 6.7 |
| 60.3 | Possession % | 53.8 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 17% |
| 6.9 | Corners | 5.2 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 7.10 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Benfica vs Lech Poznań prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 2.83 for Benfica and 1.13 for Lech Poznań - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 64%. Benfica have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Benfica 2-1 Lech Poznań
Benfica vs Lech Poznań betting tips
- Tip 1: Benfica to win 72% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 76% by the model, 3.96 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Benfica vs Lech Poznań: questions and answers
When is Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
Benfica vs Lech Poznań is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Benfica vs Lech Poznań played?
At Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisboa, Benfica's home ground.
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
Benfica are the favourites: Benfica 72%, draw 16%, Lech Poznań 12%. Our prediction is Benfica 2-1 Lech Poznań.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.