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Bologna vs Inter Milan Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 7

Bologna welcome Inter Milan to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna in Serie A Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 17 October 2026.

Bologna have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Inter Milan have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 25% win rate.

On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Inter Milan are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 23% and Bologna at 19%.

The odds

Bologna4.7919%
Draw3.9023%
Inter Milan1.5758%

Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bologna +0.75 at 2.11, Inter Milan at 1.80. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.85, under 2.03, which gives over 52%.

Bologna: form and key numbers

Inter Milan: form and key numbers

In style Inter Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.

Bologna vs Inter Milan: season averages side by side

BolognaPer matchInter Milan
1.31Expected goals (xG)2.80
0.89xG conceded1.24
0.60Goals3.00
13.4Shots23.2
3.2Shots on target7.4
1.6Big chances missed3.6
49.0Pressure share %80.1
15.8Tackles16.6
14.6Fouls6.6
1.6Yellow cards1.6

Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.

Players to watch

Bologna

Inter Milan

Scouting spotlight: Lautaro Martínez

Lautaro Martínez, 29 · Inter · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69

Lautaro Martínez, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in shots on target. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.

Expected goals 97Goals 93Shots 98Shots on target 22Shot quality 73Aerial duels won 23Duels won 36Key passes 82Big chances missed 22

Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.

Positions he can play

  • ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69

Where he is strongest

FigureHis numberBetter than
Shots6.11 / 9098%
Expected goals1.23 / 9097%
Goals1.11 / 9093%
Key passes1.67 / 9082%
Shot quality (xG per shot)0.20 xG/shot73%

Roles he suits

  • ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
  • ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
  • ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward

Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher.

In Moneyball Scout
  • What Lautaro Martínez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
  • How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
  • The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
  • His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age

Open Lautaro Martínez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month

Bologna vs Inter Milan prediction

Inter Milan should have more of the ball; Inter Milan work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.28 for Bologna and 1.73 for Inter Milan - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 60%. Inter Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.

Prediction: Bologna 1-2 Inter Milan

The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre

Bologna vs Inter Milan betting tips

  1. Tip 1: Inter Milan to win 58% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
  2. Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.01 goals expected
  3. Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
  4. Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
  5. Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.4 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

Moneyball's pick

The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.

Open Bologna vs Inter Milan in the Match Centre Follow it live

More Serie A previews

Bologna vs Inter Milan: questions and answers

When is Bologna vs Inter Milan?

Bologna vs Inter Milan is on Saturday 17 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 7.

Where is Bologna vs Inter Milan played?

At Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna, Bologna's home ground.

Who will win Bologna vs Inter Milan?

Inter Milan are the favourites: Bologna 19%, draw 23%, Inter Milan 58%. Our prediction is Bologna 1-2 Inter Milan.

Who is the player to watch in Bologna vs Inter Milan?

Lautaro Martínez of Inter: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.

How many goals will there be in Bologna vs Inter Milan?

Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.