Napoli vs Frosinone Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Napoli welcome Frosinone to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli in Serie A action on Sunday 11 October 2026.
Napoli have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Frosinone have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Napoli are clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 21% and Frosinone at 15%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Napoli -1 at 1.75, Frosinone at 2.17. The main goals line is 3: over 1.97, under 1.92, which gives over 49%.
Napoli: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Frosinone: form and key numbers
In style Frosinone are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 2.07 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 16.8 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 41.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
Napoli vs Frosinone: season averages side by side
| Napoli | Per match | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | 2.07 |
| 1.40 | Goals | 1.80 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 16.8 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 51.5 | Pressure share % | 40.1 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 20.2 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 17.4 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 68 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Alex Meret GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 17% of his position)
Frosinone
- Lorenzo Palmisani GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 66 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 17% of his position)
- Anthony Oyono RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23 · Frosinone · LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 60
Giorgi Kvernadze, 23, plays as a winger for Frosinone in Serie A. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and key passes. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 60
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 56
- LM · Wide midfielder Competent, 52
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 3.30 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 2.47 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.32 / 90 | 78% |
| Shots | 2.88 / 90 | 71% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.23 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Chance creator.
- What Giorgi Kvernadze is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Giorgi Kvernadze's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Napoli vs Frosinone prediction
Napoli should have more of the ball, with Frosinone likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Frosinone work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.58 for Napoli and 1.41 for Frosinone - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 61%. Napoli have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Napoli 2-1 Frosinone
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Napoli vs Frosinone betting tips
- Tip 1: Napoli to win 64% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.99 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
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Napoli vs Frosinone: questions and answers
When is Napoli vs Frosinone?
Napoli vs Frosinone is on Sunday 11 October 2026, in Serie A.
Where is Napoli vs Frosinone played?
At Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli, Napoli's home ground.
Who will win Napoli vs Frosinone?
Napoli are the favourites: Napoli 64%, draw 21%, Frosinone 15%. Our prediction is Napoli 2-1 Frosinone.
Who is the player to watch in Napoli vs Frosinone?
Giorgi Kvernadze of Frosinone: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Frosinone?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
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