Lecce vs Bologna Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 6
Serie A · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Lecce welcome Bologna to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce in Serie A Gameweek 6 action on Sunday 11 October 2026.
Lecce have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Bologna have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bologna are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 29% and Lecce at 27%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lecce +0.25 at 2.17, Bologna at 1.75. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.83, under 2.06, which gives over 53%.
Lecce: form and key numbers
In style Lecce are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created, 2.04 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.0).
- Shots: 8.4 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 38.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Bologna: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 52.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Lecce vs Bologna: season averages side by side
| Lecce | Per match | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.31 |
| 2.04 | xG conceded | 0.89 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 0.60 |
| 8.4 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 3.2 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 21.4 | Pressure share % | 49.0 |
| 23.6 | Tackles | 15.8 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 14.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Lecce vs Bologna: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lecce have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lecce 2, Bologna 5 - 1.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Bologna 2-0 Lecce (April 12th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Lecce won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Bologna | 2 – 0 | Lecce |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Lecce | 2 – 2 | Bologna |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Lecce | 0 – 0 | Bologna |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Bologna | 1 – 0 | Lecce |
Players to watch
Lecce
- Wladimiro Falcone GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 54 · Shot-stopper, Long passer (top 2% of his position)
- Danilo Veiga RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Crosser, Ball-winner (top 10% of his position)
Bologna
- Lewis Ferguson CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
- Federico Bernardeschi RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 61 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda, 26 · Bologna · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 67
Juan Miranda, 26, plays as a wing-back for Bologna in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and key passes. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 67
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 63
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.29 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 2.58 / 90 | 87% |
| Tackles | 2.87 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 79% |
| Duels won | 4.87 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Chance creator, Ball-winner.
- What Juan Miranda is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Juan Miranda's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lecce vs Bologna prediction
Bologna should have more of the ball, with Lecce likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.11 for Lecce and 1.30 for Bologna - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 50%. Bologna have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Lecce 0-1 Bologna
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lecce vs Bologna betting tips
- Tip 1: Bologna win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.41 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan Sunday 11 October 2026
Lecce vs Bologna: questions and answers
When is Lecce vs Bologna?
Lecce vs Bologna is on Sunday 11 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 6.
Where is Lecce vs Bologna played?
At Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce, Lecce's home ground.
Who will win Lecce vs Bologna?
Bologna are the favourites: Lecce 27%, draw 29%, Bologna 44%. Our prediction is Lecce 0-1 Bologna.
Who is the player to watch in Lecce vs Bologna?
Juan Miranda of Bologna: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lecce vs Bologna?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.