Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 4
Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund · updated 2026-10-21
Borussia Dortmund welcome Real Betis to Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund in Champions League Gameweek 4 action on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Borussia Dortmund have played 3 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate. Real Betis have played 9 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Borussia Dortmund are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 23% and Real Betis at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 1.95, Real Betis 1.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Dortmund keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.33 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.0).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Real Betis: form and key numbers
In style Real Betis take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 1.69 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 16.4 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis: season averages side by side
| Borussia Dortmund | Per match this season | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 2.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.69 |
| 16.3 | Shots | 16.4 |
| 6.3 | On target | 6.3 |
| 53.0 | Possession % | 51.2 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 44% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 56% |
| 9.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 77 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Felix Nmecha CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 68 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 11% of his position)
Real Betis
- Álvaro Valles GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 73 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 1% of his position)
- Natan CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 65 · Disciplined, Box defender (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Isco
Isco, 34 · Real Betis · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 70
Isco, 34, plays as an attacking midfielder for Real Betis in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected goals and key passes. Weakest in big chances created. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 79
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 70
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.72 / 90 | 99% |
| Key passes | 4.04 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 3.82 / 90 | 97% |
| Fouls won | 2.47 / 90 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy | 91% | 93% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator, High shot volume.
- What Isco is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis prediction
Borussia Dortmund should have more of the ball; Borussia Dortmund are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Real Betis like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.95 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.41 for Real Betis - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 65%. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis betting tips
- Tip 1: Borussia Dortmund win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.36 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis: questions and answers
When is Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis?
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis is on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 4.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis played?
At Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund's home ground.
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis?
Borussia Dortmund are the favourites: Borussia Dortmund 50%, draw 23%, Real Betis 27%. Our prediction is Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Real Betis.
Who is the player to watch in Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis?
Isco of Real Betis: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.